The Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins face off at Target Field tonight for Game 2 of a three-game set after the Red Sox took the opener last night by a score of 9-3.
Oddsmakers expect the Twins to bounce back today with MLB odds opening with Minnesota as a -140 favorite. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Twins MLB picks and predictions for June 20.
Red Sox vs Twins odds
Red Sox vs Twins predictions
Star Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton says he's "fine" after a stint on IL with a rib injury but he is 0-for-16 with 10 strikeouts in five games since rejoining the lineup. To be fair, he has been struggling at the dish all season, batting just .202 with his lowest slugging percentage (.409) since he was a rookie in 2015.
Buxton doesn't make enough contact and has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone but his total bases are still a tad inflated due to his impressive numbers when healthy over the last few years.
Boston Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford has been far from consistent but he does have excellent spin on his fastball and a chase rate that ranks among the best in the majors. Ultimately this play has less to do with Crawford and more to do with Buxton, who should be faded until he begins to show progress at the plate.
My best bet: Byron Buxton Under 1.5 total bases (-140)
Red Sox vs Twins same-game parlay
Byron Buxton Under 1.5 total bases (-140)
Kutter Crawford Under 1.5 walks (-110)
Red Sox team total Under 4.5 (-155)
Crawford struggled with his control in his previous start but he's generally much better in that area and still ranks in the top 15th percentile in walk rate across MLB. He is also unlikely to pitch deep in this one, which makes it even more likely that he won't stick around long enough to go Over this number.
While the Red Sox are sixth in the majors in scoring with 5.10 runs per game, that number drops to 4.21 away from Fenway Park. They won't find it easy to score more than four runs with Bailey Ober on the mound for Minnesota and a solid bullpen behind him.
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Red Sox vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Red Sox won 9-3 last night to improve to 38-35 but despite a better record than the Twins (36-37), they sit in last place in the AL East while Minnesota is atop the weak AL Central.
The Twins are -140 favorites due both to home-field advantage and having the superior starter on the mound. Crawford has been effective as a reliever this season but has pitched to a 7.11 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and an OBA of .321 across his five starts.
Ober has far better numbers across the board pitching to a 2.65 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an OBA of .207 in 10 starts this year.
That said, the Red Sox have the edge at the plate with Boston seventh in the majors in OPS (.767) and Minnesota 23rd (.706). The total has stayed steady at 8.5 all day.
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Trend to know
The Under is 12-5 in Boston's last 17 games on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Twins
Red Sox vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Sports North |
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford (1-3, 4.20 ERA): Crawford is coming off a start at home against the Rockies last Tuesday where he allowed eight batters to reach base while surrendering four runs through four innings. That was the most innings and most pitches (80) he has thrown in a start since April 3. The 27-year-old has impressive analytics with a hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected ERA (3.20) that rank in the top 20th percentile. However, he appears much better as a reliever and lacks the ability to get himself out of tough spots.
Bailey Ober (4-3, 2.65 ERA): The towering right-hander doesn't throw with much velocity but he has terrific extension and ranks in the top 10th percentile in chase rate. He's also in the top 30th percentile in hard-hit rate but his barrel rate is in the bottom 20th and his expected ERA (3.89) is significantly higher than his actual ERA (2.65).
