Rockies vs Giants Picks and Predictions: Backing the Over at Oracle Park

The Colorado Rockies (16-13) are off to a somewhat surprising start but have struggled a bit as of late, having lost three of their last four.

In fact, their loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday handed them just their second series loss of the year, and on Tuesday night they'll look to prevent their third when they go up against the San Francisco Giants (17-12)

San Fran took the first game. Find out who takes the second in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Rockies vs. Giants on Tuesday, May 10.

Rockies vs Giants odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Giants opened as -185 favorites and have since moved as high as -215 at some books. The total opened at 7 and has since moved up a half-run to 7.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Rockies vs Giants predictions

• Prediction: Rockies ML (+180)
• Prediction: Over 7.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Over 7.5 (-105)

Picks made on 5/10/2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Rockies vs Giants game info

• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
• First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS BA, AT&T SportsNet-RM

Rockies vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 3.75 ERA): Senzatela is one of MLB's more peculiar pitchers. The 27-year-old is a contact pitcher who has very frequently not ranked well in terms of limiting hard contact, and the results year-over-year have varied massively as a result. This year is a prime example, with Senzatela pitching to a respectable 3.75 ERA but doing so while maintaining a 1.88 WHIP.

Alex Wood (2-2, 4.38 ERA): Wood has seemingly been in the league forever, entering his tenth season this year, but still is just 31 years young. Wood's prime was his three-year stint with the Dodgers from 2016 to 2018 but was a more than serviceable starter last year for the Giants (10-4, 3.83 ERA) following disappointing campaigns the previous two seasons. He has allowed eight combined earned runs in his last two starts and is looking to bounce back on Tuesday.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Rockies: Kris Bryant LF (Out).
Giants: Brandon Belt 1B (Questionable), Steven Duggar CF (Out), Evan Longoria 3B (o=Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Both the Rockies and Giants have played 14-14-1 to the Over. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Giants.

Rockies vs Giants picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

If you are someone who is fascinated with advanced metrics and player development, Antonio Senzatela's BaseballSavant page is a goldmine. The easiest place to start is with his strikeout rate. In his debut season in 2017, Senzatela ranked in the 24th percentile in strikeout percentage, which for the less statistically inclined, means he was worse than only 24% of all other qualified pitchers at striking out batters.

The fascinating part? That mark has remained his career-best. In fact, Senzatela has now ranked in the fifth percentile or worse in the last four seasons, including two seasons (one being this year) in which he has ranked in the first percentile in strikeout rate.

Instead of that being something that has bounced the 27-year-old out of the majors, the Rockies have developed him into a decent contact pitcher — especially considering he calls Coors Field home, a hitter's paradise of Coors.

Part of that transformation has come from his ability to really improve his control. In 2019, only four other pitchers pitched as many innings as Senzatela while walking batters at a higher rate. But in 2020, only eight other pitchers pitched as many innings as Senzatela while walking batters at a lower rate. In 2021, that number was down to just four: the likes of Ryan Yarbrough, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.

It should come as no surprise that from 2017 to 2019, Senzatela pitched to a 5.33 ERA and 1.48 WHIP and since, has improved to a 4.07 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP.

And while he has struggled with surrendering hard contact throughout his career, he may have his work cut out for him Tuesday night. Although the Giants rank fourth in MLB in runs per game (4.79), they bring a more traditional small-ball type approach. They rank third-worst in home run to flyball ratio (HR/FB) and fifth-worst in hard-hit percentage.

If Senzatela can keep the ball in the park, the Rockies stand a better chance than their long odds suggest.

Prediction: Rockies moneyline (+180 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

However, that may be a huge if. In a year where hitting is astronomically down in terms of historical trends, the Rockies and Giants are two of just nine teams hitting Overs at a 50% or higher rate.

Mother nature will try to lend a helping hand tonight, with the wind blowing out to dead center at a brisk 18 miles per hour. As previously mentioned, the Giants score runs at the fourth-highest per-game rate but the Rockies are not far behind them, ranking eighth with 4.48 runs per game.

Alex Wood will take the mound for the Giants on Tuesday, and his peripherals suggest he is not entirely up to speed quite yet. The vertical movement on every single one of his pitches is down compared to last year, and on top of that, his signature slider has had its horizontal movement nearly cut in half.

As a result, his whiff percentage with his slider has gone down from 39.9% to 29.3%, and his put away percentage has also been nearly cut in half. Wood has allowed notable hard contact (33rd percentile), expected slugging percentage (17th percentile), and barrel rates (18th percentile) in lieu of these dips.

If either Senzatel or Wood has poor outings in these hitter-friendly conditions, the low total of 7.5 should get topped.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-105 at PointsBet)

Best bet

To put it plainly, there are a lot of sources of potential variance in Tuesday's matchup between the Rockies and Padres, whether it's Antonio Senzatela's style of pitching, Alex Wood's concerning dip in slider efficacy, the Rockies and Giants scoring proficiency, or the 18 mph winds blowing out to center.

And although chaos may lend its hand to taking a moneyline dog like the Rockies, almost all of those same factors naturally point towards the Over. Plus, neither pitcher's track record against opposing batters is anything more than average at best, so the likelihood of a shutout-type performance from either tonight is not high.

If you are inclined to back a team, the Rockies are the better bet simply due to their odds and the nature of the game, but all in all the Over is the better value proposition.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-105 at PointsBet)

Pages related to this topic