The Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox will wrap up a four-game set at Fenway tonight in what could potentially be a high-scoring matchup.
With James Paxton being overpriced as an elite starter facing a Kansas City bullpen day, find out where my best bets lie in our free MLB picks and predictions for Royals vs. Red Sox for Thursday, August 10.
Royals vs Red Sox odds
Royals vs Red Sox predictions
The Boston Red Sox offense has a great matchup today when they face a Kansas City Royals team that will be relying on their bullpen for an entire nine innings. It’s priced into the moneyline, with Boston currently sitting as -250 faves and its team total all the way up at 6.5.
Tonight at Fenway, we'll be tailing Boston's most lethal slugger.
THE BAT is projecting Rafael Devers to record the most bases of the day at 2.60, which is substantially more than the next-highest player at 2.4 (Bobby Witt Jr.). Devers will see lefty Austin Cox open things up before going up against a righty in Alec Marsh who has allowed 30 hits and 10 home runs over the course of just 28 innings.
While Devers is just 1-for-10 in the series so far, the star third baseman is hitting .263 with a .846 OPS on the year. He hits both lefties and rights equally well and is also boasting a .281 batting average at Fenway.
With some possible rain projected, I’m staying away from James Paxton’s props and instead banking on a high-scoring game as the Red Sox face a parade of KC relievers. Over the last 30 days, only one team has a higher bullpen ERA than the Royals at 6.00.
The KC offense has also been much better over the last 30 days and could keep this game surprisingly competitive despite being heavy dogs... and that’s something that would keep Devers and the Boston offense engaged.
My best bet: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Royals vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Devers o1.5 TB (-115)
Royals +1.5 (+105)
Both teams to score four runs (-110)
Whitt Jr. o1.5 TB (-115)
Devers and Whitt Jr. project to have the most bases in the game and are showing +EV on their Overs. It's a good offensive matchup for both teams as the Red Sox will face the Royals' lowly bullpen, but KC has been good offensively over the last month and now go up against a struggling pitcher in Paxton.
Hitting conditions are solid again at Fenway with double-digit winds blowing over the Monster, and potential rain could also aid in knocking Paxton out early.
With a total of 10.5 and the Royals at better value than the price is implying, bettors could easily see two-way scoring tonight in Boston.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Royals vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Royals are 6-4 straight up over the course of their last 10 games but have dropped two of three in Fenway. They won as a +165 dog on Tuesday and are currently sitting at +210 for tonight, which is a big price vs. an inconsistent Boston team.
Paxton has not been nearly as good as he was back in May and June, sporting an ERA close to 6.00 over his last five starts. The left-hander is coming off a rough outing where he allowed three home runs and nine hits to the Jays, and Boston is just 6-8 SU in games where the "Big Maple" starts.
While the Kansas City offense isn’t anywhere near the Jays’ level, the Royals have been decent over the last 30 days. During that span, KC ranks sixth in batting average (.264).
Bettors who are riding +200 dogs usually have to face an elite pitcher, but Paxton is not that. He’s riding poor form and the hitting conditions are working against him tonight.
The total is a little high for my liking at 10.5 and the betting public seems to share that sentiment as the number has seen very little movement today. With the possible rain projected and Justin Turner questionable, I’m off this market completely.
Give me the Royals at +210 or better, though.
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Trend to know
The Kansas City Royals have hit the team total Over in nine of their last 12 games (+5.44 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Red Sox
Royals vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, August 10, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSKC, NESN |
Starting pitchers
Austin Cox (0-1, 3.58 ERA): Cox will serve as an opener today as the reliever last pitched last Friday and likely won’t see more than two innings before handing things over to the pen. Cox is a low K% pitcher who has control issues, but you can rely on the southpaw to keep the ball in the park.
James Paxton (6-3, 3.60 ERA): Paxton is making his 15th start of the season and brings an 84:22 K/BB rate over 75 innings with 12 home runs allowed. Since July, he’s posted a 5.75 ERA with 16 runs allowed over 25 innings (five starts). The Red Sox are 6-8 when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 100 pitches, 17.7 outs, 6.97 strikeouts, and 2.80 earned runs tonight.
