The Minnesota Twins open their three-game series at the Houston Astros tonight in need of a win after dropping three straight to the Texas Rangers. Getting that victory will be a challenge, as the Astros are sending ace Justin Verlander to the mound against Aaron Sanchez.
Houston continues to roll towards a first-round bye in the playoffs with an American League-best 78-45 record. With Verlander on the hill, the Astros are heavy -300 favorites over the Twins tonight 23. As our MLB picks and predictions show, Houston should feel confident about picking up another win on home soil.
Twins vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
DraftKings opened the Astros as a -350 favorite overnight, though that number has shortened to as low as -300 at some sportsbooks. Most books opened the total at eight, but there has been movement towards the Under, which can now be found as low as Under 7.5 (-105).
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Twins vs Astros predictions
Picks made on 8/23/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Twins vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Tuesday, August 23, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North, AT&T Sportsnet
Twins vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Sanchez (3-3, 7.68 ERA): The Twins picked up Sanchez as a free agent in June after he struggled to an 8.33 ERA in seven starts for the Washington Nationals earlier this season. He has made just one appearance for Minnesota since then, allowing two runs on four hits over five innings to the Tigers on August 1. Sanchez has also put up a 3-2 record with a 3.80 ERA in 10 starts for Triple-A St. Paul while in the Twins organization.
Justin Verlander (15-3, 1.95 ERA): Verlander continues to make his case for the 2022 AL Cy Young Award. While the Astros have lost his last two starts, Verlander only gave up three runs in each of those appearances and looks poised to go deep into the game against Minnesota on Tuesday. In his only prior start against the Twins this year, Verlander threw eight innings of one-hit ball on May 10 in a 5-0 win for Houston.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Twins’ last five games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Astros
Twins vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Not only do the Astros own the best record in the American League, but they will also be playing behind AL Cy Young betting favorite Justin Verlander tonight. Houston has been giving the 39-year-old Verlander a bit more rest between starts this year, and he’ll be pitching for the first time in a week on Tuesday. A model of consistency, Verlander hasn’t gone less than six innings or allowed more than three runs in any of his past nine starts.
Contrast that with counterpart Aaron Sanchez, and it makes sense that the Astros are priced at -300 tonight. A one-time All-Star, Sanchez struggled to find any effectiveness earlier this year in Washington. While the Twins saw value in picking him up for rotational depth, they haven’t been enthusiastic about trotting Sanchez out to the mound. He’s only made one major-league appearance since joining the team on June 6.
That matchup alone might justify the short price on Houston tonight. However, Minnesota has also been struggling to score runs. The Twins offense was anemic in Texas, crossing the plate just six times in four games. Minnesota center fielder Byron Buxton also left Monday’s game with right hip tightness and may not join the team in Houston, weakening an already struggling Twins lineup. Buxton has 28 home runs with a .832 OPS on the season.
With the line trending downward, it’s hard to pick against the Astros here, despite the slim value available at -300. Houston should be able to put up at least a few runs against Sanchez, especially with lefties Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in the middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, it’s difficult to see where Minnesota will find success against Verlander, with all signs pointing to another vintage performance for the ace on Tuesday.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (-300 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
While some sportsbooks have already moved the total to 7.5, there are still several places where you can get an Under 8 bet at -120, and that’s where I see value tonight.
Verlander is the key factor in this pick, as he should dominate the depleted Minnesota lineup. However, this doesn’t necessarily point to an Astros blowout. Sanchez was able to put in a workmanlike start last time he came up to the majors, going five innings and allowing just two runs in that appearance. Sanchez should be capable of eating some innings without allowing the game to get completely out of control.
The Astros haven’t been crushing the ball as of late either. The White Sox and Braves managed to hold the Astros to five runs or less in six of Houston’s past seven games — the one exception being Houston’s 21-run outburst against Chicago last Thursday. With the Twins unlikely to score much tonight, we can allow Houston even five or six runs and still feel good about hitting the Under.
Minute Maid Park has played fairly neutral in terms of run production, and weather won’t be a factor indoors. While Under 7.5 bets at -105 are tempting, I’m more inclined to take the extra half-run for protection while sacrificing only a small amount of juice.
Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at Caesars)
Best bet
There’s one matchup that I feel more confident about in tonight’s game than any other, and that’s Verlander shutting down the Minnesota lineup. While I’m also hitting the Under in general, I think we can do even better by focusing on the Twins' total.
Minnesota can try to load its lineup with lefties as much as it likes. But outside of Luis Arraez, who is hitting .349 off of righties this season, the Twins can’t bring much to bear from the left side of the plate. Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, and Jake Cave are more likely to help Verlander pad his strikeout total than put together rallies in the back half of the lineup. Verlander gave up just one hit to a similarly weak Minnesota lineup over eight innings in May.
I expect Verlander to once again shut down the Twins tonight. While most books have set the Minnesota team total at 2.5 runs, FanDuel has the best price on the Under at -102. With the Twins struggling to score even against weaker pitching, let alone a generational talent like Verlander, this number represents a great value for bettors.
Pick: Twins team total Under 2.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
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