The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox continue their three-game series on Tuesday night. The Twins needed extra innings to defeat the White Sox 6-3 in Game 1.
Luis Arreaz led the way for Minnesota with three hits, including a tiebreaking RBI single in the 10th inning. The Twins have won six of their last 10 games while the White Sox are playing .500 baseball over the same sample. Game 2 will see Chris Archer (2-3) take on Michael Kopech (2-5).
Here are our best free Twins vs. White Sox MLB picks and predictions for July 5.
Twins vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The White Sox opened Monday night as the -135 favorite with the Over/Under set at 9. The line adjusted to -125 before settling at -130 as of noon ET Tuesday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Twins vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 7/5/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Twins vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, July 5, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, NBCS-CHI
Twins vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chris Archer (2-3, 3.08 ERA): At this stage in his career, Archer does not go deep into games but can pitch three to four solid innings as a starter or opener. Archer pitched very well in June and has not given up more than two earned runs in a game since May 28, six starts ago.
Archer’s head-to-head stats against the White Sox aren't great, as the White Sox own a .283 lifetime batting average with two home runs against him. However, the last time Archer faced Chicago on April 24, he gave up just two earned runs over three innings.
Michael Kopech (2-5, 2.78 ERA): The hard-throwing 26-year-old started out very strong for the White Sox but has cooled off drastically in his last few starts. Kopech has given up 10 earned runs over his last three outings, which has resulted in his ERA going from 1.92 to 2.78. After picking up his second win of the season back on June 7, Kopech has dropped his last three starts.
In 23 at-bats against him, the Twins only have two hits, both of which came from Luis Arreaz. In his first start against the Twins this season back on April 22, he pitched five innings of three-hit shutout ball.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Twins have been victorious seven times in 16 chances when named as the underdog of +110 or worse this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox
Moneyline analysis
The Twins extended their lead over the White Sox in the AL Central following yesterday’s 6-3 win, moving 5.5 games ahead of them. The Twins won two out of three against the Baltimore Orioles before coming to Chicago, while the White Sox had swept the San Francisco Giants on the road before this series.
The Twins have battled through injuries this season, most notably to first baseman Miguel Sano, who remains out with a knee injury. Minnesota has also battled injuries to their rotation, with starters Bailey Ober and Sonny Gray having missed time. Despite this, the Twins have the seventh-best ERA in baseball and have the eighth-most quality starts.
Archer will make his 15th start of the season on Tuesday, and while his innings have been limited, he’s only allowed 47 hits in 61.1 innings pitched. He was also fantastic in June, going 2-1 with a 1.67 ERA.
Kopech, on the other hand, has struggled lately. His Fielding Independent Pitching is 3.67 compared to the 2.97 that he claimed last year, which indicates that his stuff has not been as strong.
A year ago, he was striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings, with a fastball that average at 97.3 mph. He had a whiff rate of 31.7%, with arguably his best pitch, the slider, at 36%. This year, his slider’s whiff rate is down to 26.4% and his average velocity on his fastball is 95.1, which has resulted in his strikeout rate dropping to 8.3 per nine — a good indication why he has struggled. Not only has he lost his last three starts, but he also amassed a 5.14 ERA during June.
In four games between the two AL Central rivals, the Twins are a perfect 4-0 and will look to continue this trend on Tuesday. Despite the lack of success against Kopech, this is a Twins lineup that has lived up to the billing since it brought in Carlos Correa and Gary Sanchez in the offseason to bolster to add some much-needed punch.
Led by star Byron Buxton, Minnesota averages 1.2 home runs per game, which ranks 10th in baseball. The Twins are also seventh in the league with a slugging rate of .414, eighth in the MLB with a .251 batting average, and a .321 OBP which ranks seventh in the league.
Prediction: Twins moneyline (+110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
When looking at the matchup, the White Sox lineup has had some success against Archer in the past. Despite his recent success, expect there to be runs scored before he departs. As discussed, Kopech has struggled mightily and has been giving up his fair share of runs over his last three starts. On top of that, the White Sox have a struggling bullpen that ranks 20th in the league, only emphasizing that the first or second man behind Kopech tonight will also get tagged for some runs.
The Twins, meanwhile, boast the MLB’s 16th-best bullpen. The wind gust is looking like it will reach 14 mph, meaning the balls could be flying out of Guaranteed Rate Field tonight.
Prediction: Over 9 (-115 at bet365)
Best bet
Tim Anderson is one of the best hitters in the league, and this year he continues his torrid plate presence with a .326 batting average, a .440 slugging rate and 15 extra-base hits. Anderson has also had the most success of his teammates against Archer.
In 11 at-bats, he has four hits, a triple and a solo home run. The one thing to keep in mind is Anderson has been struggling a bit over the last few weeks. Granted, he has only hit the Over of 1.5 total bases three times in his last 10 games. However, with a talent like his, it’s easy to see Anderson getting out of a slump against a pitcher with whom he has had past success.
Tim Anderson prop pick: Over 1.5 total bases (-115)
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