Twins vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Brito Can't Find Spots Against Minnesota.

The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will meet in the Bronx tonight as two teams with identical records.

New York has won four out of its last five games, including two straight against the Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen its odds to win the AL Central move considerably from the preseason going from the +250 range to the +100 range. It's also won two straight games meaning one of these teams will lose its two-game winning streak tonight.   

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in my MLB picks for the Yankees vs. Twins. 

Twins vs Yankees odds

Twins vs Yankees predictions

Jhony Brito will take the mound for the New York Yankees tonight, and he's due for some regression. Brito has been excellent, from the numbers that matter to the results early on. He's gone 2-0 and has a sub-1 run ERA, but that's not where the story ends. Brtio's underlying metrics suggest regression, and they suggest it heavily. The most telling statistic is an xERA of 5.11 — a massive discrepancy. 

We're backing the Minnesota Twins to cash in on that today. 

Brito was fortunate to face an abysmal offense in his first start against the San Francisco Giants. I don't have to say much about the Giants, but they struggle offensively. While they improved some lately when the Yankees saw them, they were last in the MLB in runs per game.

In addition, San Fran currently has the highest strikeout rate in baseball, an excellent lift for a pitcher with an average K rate. The second start against the Orioles was impressive, but it was a favorable matchup even then. Brito is a heavy changeup pitcher, and the Orioles' numbers against changeups could be better in this young season.

Minnesota has a few things going in its favor in this matchup.

For starters, it'll face a heavy ground ball reliant pitcher, but it will only hit into a few ground balls. You'd like to know if Byron Buxton would be available today for the Twins after his injury. Yet, even without him, the Twins still have one of the lowest ground ball rates in baseball this season, along with a season ago. 

Secondly, the Twins have a lineup filled with enough threat against changeups that it should be able to get Brito off that pitch some. Depending on who starts today, Minnesota could have up to five players in the lineup that batted .250 or better against that pitch a season ago. So once Brito is forced off that pitch more often than usual, I expect he'll have some slippage. 

Brito is due for regression, and the Twins fit the mold of a team that can deliver it. Getting them to lead or be tied at the end of five innings at this reasonable price feels like a steal — I'll take it. 

My best bet: Twins F5 run line +0.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Twins vs Yankees moneyline analysis

I'm comfortable with the best bet above to attack this game from a side perspective. We'll talk more about Joe Ryan a bit later, but you worry about the odd homerun with him. That's certainly a risk you take against the Yankees' power, but it's one I feel is worth it. My projections agree, giving the Twins closer to a 60% chance of being tied or ahead after five innings which is a decent edge. 

Outside of that, I'm only interested in taking that. While I believe the Twins have a slight pitching edge coming into this game, New York's bullpen could make up for that. With two teams playing well, there's not much of an advantage from trends either — I'll stay away.

Twins vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

I placed a half unit on the F5 Under 4.5 for -110 at FanDuel. 

Brito is due for some regression but is unlikely to have a total implosion. He's a good pitcher, just not a sub-1 run ERA pitcher. We have yet to talk much about Ryan today, but he's well-suited to have some success in this matchup.

Aaron Hicks, Judge, and Gleyber Torres have seen him for multiple at bats, yet none have recorded a hit against him. In addition to that, Ryan has a strikeout rate that is in the Top 10 percentile of MLB, and the Yanks have long been susceptible to being victims of the strikeout. I've noted the one worry of the longball, but if he can stay away from that, I'll feel good about this Under.

Twins vs Yankees game info

Twins vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Joe Ryan (2-0, 3.75 ERA): As we discussed above, while Joe Ryan has started the season with a 2-0 record, he's been a bit unlucky. There's a significant differential in his expected ERA of 2.44 against his actual one which suggests positive regression soon. Ryan had a good season a year ago, primarily because of an electric fastball that produced a -21 run value. He has also eliminated his worst pitch in the slider, making him a more well-rounded pitcher.

Jhony Brito (2-0, 0.90 ERA): Brito is an interesting contrast to his counterpart on the mound. He's been dominant to start the season, but his expected ERA suggests he may not continue. It's at 5.11, which is a massive counter to his actual number. Brito is very groundball reliant, with a rate of over 61%. It's a small sample, but if that were to continue, it would make some of the highest rates of last season — right up there with Framber Valdez.  

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The Under is 7-0-1 in the Twins' last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees

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