The Houston Astros (40-24) sit atop the AL West standings. They have the second-best record in the AL and will look to add to it on Saturday. Game 1 of the series went their way in a resounding 13-3 victory.
The Chicago White Sox (30-32) are treading water. They’ll turn to Johnny Cueto in hopes he can outduel the ageless Justin Verlander. The line has moved in the Astros’ direction, so bettors seem confident about which way this one will play out.
Will the Astros add to their terrific record, or will the White Sox nab a victory in Game 2?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros on Saturday, June 18, to find out.
White Sox vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros opened -192 but have taken some money. They now sit between -227 and -250 depending on the book. The total is set at 8 across all books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Astros predictions
Picks made on 6/18/2022 at 9:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Saturday, June 18, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-CHI, ATTSN-SW
White Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (0-3, 3.53 ERA): Cueto has a 5.4% barrel rate, which is close to Verlander’s 5.1%. He hasn’t been bad across six appearances and five starts even though he’s yet to find his first win for Chicago.
He doesn’t strike out many batters (seven per nine innings), which is in line with what we’ve seen from him in his career. His 3.62 xERA, 3.86 FIP, and 4.04 xFIP are all decent. Last time out, he allowed three earned runs across five innings against the Texas Rangers.
Justin Verlander (8-2, 1.94 ERA): The ageless wonder continues to be at the top of his craft in a manner reminiscent of Tom Brady. Some of his peripherals are a tad down, but his 1.94 ERA is terrific. He’s striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings, down from the 12.1 he posted in his last full season of work in 2019.
His 3.12 xERA, 3.49 FIP, and 3.45 xFIP are quite a bit higher than his ERA, and those numbers are usually a better predictor of future performance. His 5.1% barrel rate is decent but not spectacular.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
White Sox: Tim Anderson SS (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Yasmani Grandal C (Out), Kyle Crick RP (Out), Liam Hendriks RP (Out), Michael Kopech RP (Out), Aaron Bummer RP (Out), Garrett Crochet RP (Out).
Astros: Taylor Jones 1B (Out), Jeremy Pena SS (Out), Jake Myers CF (Out), Hector Neris RP (Out), Blake Taylor RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the White Sox’s last 8 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros
White Sox vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
We have to give the starting pitching advantage to the Astros. It really is remarkable what Verlander has managed to accomplish coming off an injury at age 39. At this point, there’s nothing we’d put past him.
That said, the gap in the numbers isn’t quite as drastic as you might expect. Verlander’s peripherals aren’t too far off from Cueto’s on the year, although he does have a better xERA, FIP, xFIP, and barrel rate. We have a long track record for both of these pitchers and this matchup is somewhat a blast from the past, but Verlander is the more trusted option at this point.
Both teams are an even 5-5 over their last 10 games. During that span, Houston’s lineup ranks seventh in OPS, sixth in weight on-base average, and fifth in weighted runs created+. The White Sox are nearly dead even in that span, ranking sixth in OPS, seventh in wOBA, and seventh in wRC+.
The Astros are the better team and have the better pitcher on the mound. That being said, betting is a numbers game and I think this line is too wide. Cueto’s peripherals aren’t too far off Verlander’s, and these two lineups have performed at an identical rate over the last 10 days.
I lean toward the White Sox to rebound after yesterday’s ugly 13-3 loss.
Prediction: White Sox moneyline (+210 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
As noted above, both lineups have been hot. Both teams rank within the Top 7 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ over the last 10 days.
Cueto has pitched well this season, but we only have five starts to look at — a pretty small sample size. He had a 4.95 xERA a year ago across 21 starts with the San Francisco Giants, so that’s probably a better indicator of where he stands at this point in his career.
Verlander is one of the game’s best pitchers, but it’s worth noting that his 3.49 FIP and 5.1% barrel rate aren’t indicative of a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher. It’s likely some slight regression is due.
It’s not a big lean, but I side with the Over given the recent production of both lineups. The Over is 7-1 in the White Sox’s last eight games and 4-0 in the Astros’ last four games against a right-handed starter.
Prediction: Over 8 (-102 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The White Sox have been swinging the sticks well lately. They get a tough matchup against Verlander, but his 3.45 FIP and 5.1% barrel rate indicate some slight regression is coming at some point.
The Over is 7-1 in Chicago’s last eight games, so the books have been slow to catch on to the team’s recent performance. I’m going to back their team total Over as the best bet for this matchup.
Pick: White Sox team total Over 2.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
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