The Seattle Mariners host the Chicago White Sox for the second game of a three-game series between the two playoff contenders on Tuesday night. The White Sox took the first game on Monday 3-2 behind seven strong innings from starter Lance Lynn.
Both Seattle and Chicago are in the thick of the postseason race heading into the final weeks of the season. That, along with a strong pitching matchup, has me leaning strongly on an Over/Under bet tonight. Find out why in my free best MLB picks and predictions for the White Sox vs. Mariners game on September 6.
White Sox vs Mariners best odds
White Sox vs Mariners picks and predictions
Neither the Chicago White Sox nor Seattle Mariners are known for scoring runs, and both are sending solid pitchers to the mound tonight. That has me interested in backing the Under at 7.5 tonight.
Seattle ranks 21st in MLB in runs per game at 4.19 with Chicago only slightly better at 19th (4.24). In four matchups this season, the two teams have combined for more than six runs just once. Considering the playoff implications, both managers will have their pitchers on short leashes in an effort to stay in the game should they struggle early.
That shouldn’t be a problem for the White Sox, though. Veteran Johnny Cueto is enjoying a vintage season and has gone at least eight innings in three of his past six starts. Seattle will counter with 25-year-old Logan Gilbert, who has put up a 3.35 ERA in his sophomore campaign.
Gilbert doesn’t go as deep into games as Cueto, averaging just 5.77 innings per start, though he has completed at least six innings in three of his last four outings. Regardless, the Mariners can then lean on their outstanding bullpen to see out the rest of the game. Seattle’s relievers have pitched to a 3.70 ERA, the fourth-best mark in the majors this year. The Mariners didn’t have to lean on their bullpen much last night, as Marco Gonzales went seven innings, leaving stalwarts like Erik Swanson, Andrews Munoz, and Paul Sewald fresh for Tuesday.
Furthermore, both teams are loaded with right-handed bats and hit better against lefties — particularly the White Sox, who have put up a .772 OPS against southpaws compared to just .687 against right-handers. The two righties taking the mound on Tuesday should fare even better than usual against lineups that are ill-prepared to handle them.
The fact that the game is in Seattle is also relevant. T-Mobile Park is one of the worst stadiums in MLB for hitters, ranking 29th in park factor for runs scored.
All of these factors would push me towards any reasonable Under. The fact that bettors have pushed the total from 7 up to 7.5 at all major sportsbooks doesn’t dissuade me, it just makes me that much happier to take the Under tonight.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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White Sox vs Mariners betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
While the Houston Astros have run away with the AL West, the Mariners have remained consistent and solidly in a postseason position for most of the season. Now on a 9-2 run over its last 11 games, Seattle has pushed its record to 76-59 and sits in a virtual tie with the Tampa Bay Rays for the top American League wild-card spot.
The White Sox have had a tougher time of things this year. Chicago has spent nearly the entire year middling along at around .500, a trend that has continued into September. After a late August slide dropped the White Sox to three games under .500, they’ve rebounded by winning five of their last six to improve to 68-67, two games back of the Cleveland Guardians in a three-team race for the AL Central crown.
Seattle has been the better team this year thanks in large part to superior pitching, particularly out of the bullpen. The Mariners have also been riding a stellar season from 21-year-old rookie center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who is hitting .272 with 23 homers and an .810 OPS, establishing himself as the overwhelming betting favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.
The White Sox lineup will be without star shortstop Tim Anderson, who continues to recover from a torn ligament in the middle finger of his left hand. However, Chicago can expect a strong start out of Cueto on Tuesday. He has a 2.93 ERA and 1.171 WHIP this season, his best numbers since his 2016 All-Star year for the San Francisco Giants.
Over/Under analysis
Neither team has set the world on fire at the plate this year, with both ranking in the back half in runs scored per game.
While Seattle has hit slightly better of late, Chicago’s offense hasn’t been able to muster much over the last month. The White Sox are averaging just 3.93 runs over their last 27 games, down from their season-long average of 4.24.
The Mariners don’t hit well at home, averaging just 3.77 runs per game in Seattle. But that’s only because nobody can hit much at T-Mobile Park. Its Park Factor of .866 for runs would be the worst in the majors if it wasn’t for the black hole that is San Diego's Petco Park.
Both starters have put up good numbers this season. Cueto, in particular, has impressed all year long considering he is 36 years old, showing that he can go deep into games while maintaining a 2.93 ERA. He has been slightly better against right-handed batters, which he’ll see plenty of in the Seattle lineup, while the Mariners have hit just .229 with a .695 OPS against righties.
Gilbert enjoys a similarly favorable matchup, as the White Sox have put up an OPS of just .687 against righties. However, Gilbert throws to reverse splits. The right-hander has held lefties to a .580 OPS while righties have fared far better (.792). That could provide some hope for Chicago’s big right-handed bats in the middle of the lineup, including Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez.
White Sox vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Tuesday, September 6, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (7-6, 2.93 ERA): The 36-year-old Cueto has enjoyed a bounce-back season, one that has helped keep the White Sox in playoff contention. His 2.93 ERA and 3.87 FIP are the lowest numbers he has put up since 2016. While Cueto is only striking out 5.7 batters per nine innings — the fewest of his career — he has compensated by lowering his walk rate (1.9 per nine innings) to contain opposing offenses. Cueto last threw on Thursday, holding the Kansas City Royals to one run on six hits over 5.1 innings of work.
Logan Gilbert (11-5, 3.35 ERA): After a promising rookie season in 2021, Gilbert has become a reliable starter for the Mariners, putting up a 3.59 FIP and a 1.214 WHIP in 2022. His 27 starts lead the American League, allowing him to throw 155 2-3 innings despite not going more than 6 1-3 innings in any of his last 17 appearances. Gilbert allowed just two hits while shutting out the Detroit Tigers over six innings in his last start on September 1.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1-1 in the Mariners’ last nine home games. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Mariners
