With the lockout in the rear-view mirror and spring training in full swing, the countdown to MLB Opening Day is now on. And with rosters starting to take shape, we can now take a serious look at MLB regular-season win totals.
Not surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers are saddled with the highest number heading into the season at 97.5 but even with a roster so talented, there might be some better teams to make a season-long investment with.
Check out the regular-season MLB win total odds for all 30 teams and our favorite Over/Under bets for both the American and National League.
AL win total picks
Baltimore Orioles – Under 62.5
Forty-seven. Fifty-four. Fifty-two. That’s the number of wins the Orioles have recorded in each of the last three full seasons. Now, don’t get me wrong, there are some signs Baltimore might be starting to swing in the right direction. Cedric Mullins is a great player and its farm system is starting to bear some fruit with Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez expected to make their MLB debuts this season.
But that’s not enough to make up for all the holes on this roster. This team allowed nearly 1,000 runs in 2021 while only the Rangers scored fewer in the AL. And what did the Orioles do to fix that? They signed Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos, and Jordan Lyles. They're treading water until the young core is ready. And it certainly doesn’t help they have to play 76 games against AL East teams who all finished with at least 91 wins last season.
Cleveland Guardians – Under 76.5
This is another franchise with no intention of winning in 2022. Unfortunately, the newly-minted Guardians seem determined to waste talented stars like Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. But with those guys, a decent starting staff, and the fact Cleveland plays in one of the worst divisions in baseball, we get a total in the mid-70s.
The thing is, it is unlikely the Guardians roster will remain intact through the trade deadline. Ramirez is basically only on the team because it's going to be hard for them to get a viable return in a trade despite his status as an MVP-caliber infielder. The Guardians will be sellers at the deadline. Additionally, this was an offense that ranked 21st in OPS last year and the only addition they made was signing backup catcher Luke Maile.
Seattle Mariners – Over 83.5
The Mariners are a really interesting case when it comes to their regular-season wins total. The M’s extended their postseason drought to a whopping 20 consecutive seasons last year but still came away with 90 wins. Somehow, they did that with a minus-51 run differential. So, you can make the case they were EXTREMELY lucky, and now, books aren’t sure how to handle them.
But the Mariners decided they weren’t letting that momentum slow this offseason. They signed AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and bolstered their offense by taking advantage of the Cincinnati Reds' fire sale by grabbing both Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. I’m not sure if those moves were enough to snap the M’s lengthy postseason drought but they should be enough to make them competitive in the AL West and go Over this number.
NL win total picks
Miami Marlins – Over 76.5
This one might seem a little scary considering how competitive the National League East should be this season and the fact it’s the Marlins. But I believe in this year’s edition of the Bottom Feeders.
This is a team with a great core of fledgling talent, particularly when it comes to its stable of young arms that includes Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and more. But the Marlins have also coupled that with some spending to help an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the NL. In comes World Series MVP Jorge Soler, former All-Star outfielder Avisail Garcia, infielder Joey Wendle, and catcher Jacob Stallings. The Fish are at least swimming in the right direction.
Milwaukee Brewers – Over 89.5
The National League Central will arguably be the weakest division in the Bigs this season, with it being the only one in baseball without a team with a projected win total in the 90s. But you can make the argument that the Brewers should.
Milwaukee is coming off an impressive 95-win campaign thanks to having one of the best starting staffs in baseball, a bullpen that is still stacked with Josh Hader and Devin Williams, and a former MVP in Christian Yelich who is primed to have a bounce-back season. And while bringing in Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe don’t seem like big moves, the two combined for 58 home runs last season.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Under 65.5
It isn’t too often that I feel this confident about a regular-season win total bet, but here we are. It’s awful and truly unfair to Pirates fans, but here is the truth. Team ownership has no intention of winning this season or any time soon. Pittsburgh has a payroll of roughly $35 million. That number has gone down every year since 2015. Unsurprisingly, that was the last year the Pirates made the playoffs.
The Pirates went out and got some cheap veterans like Jose Quintana, Roberto Pérez, and Daniel Vogelbach but that’s not saying much. And it's legitimately surprising that Bryan Reynolds hasn’t been traded yet. The farm system is improving but is still a few years off from making any sort of impact and the team just sent Oneil Cruz, one of their most exciting young players, to minor-league camp despite him being more than ready. This team won just 61 games last season and the roster changes don’t equate to a five-win improvement.
How to bet MLB season win totals
Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.
Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.
On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.
For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 92.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them fewer than 91 games instead of winning 93+ games. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 92.5 but increased the vig on the UNDER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the OVER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).
- OVER 92.5 WINS (-105)
- UNDER 92.5 WINS (-115)
Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.
