The Atlanta Braves took a 1-0 series lead over the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the World Series after the first lead-off homer in World Series history powered the Braves to a 6-2 victory at Minute Maid Park.
The Braves will look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead behind lefty ace Max Fried, although they are slight MLB betting home underdogs against the Astros (-115), who are countering with Jose Urquidy — who got hit hard in his only other postseason start.
Here are our best free picks, predictions, and MLB odds for Braves vs. Astros on Wednesday, October 27.
Braves vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Braves vs Astros picks
Picks made on 10/27/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
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Braves vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Wednesday, October 27, 2021
• Time: 8:09 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Braves vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Fried (Postseason: 1-1, 3.78 ERA): Fried will be making his fourth start this postseason. He is coming off his worst game since the All-Star break but heading into the playoffs, he was still baseball’s best pitcher since July. He allowed five runs in 4 2-3 innings versus the Dodgers in the NLCS but gave up just two runs over 12 innings in his two previous playoff starts. Fried had a 1.84 ERA in the second half this season, with teams slashing just .190/.232./.290 off the lefty.
Jose Urquidy (Postseason: 0-1, 27.11 ERA): Urquidy was a surprise Game 2 starter ahead of Luis Garcia. The 26-year-old right-hander recorded just five outs in his only postseason start this year, as the Red Sox tagged him for six runs on five hits and two walks in the ALCS. Urquidy has two World Series appearances under his belt, where he tossed 5 2-3 scoreless innings back in 2019. Other than that, he owns a 4.28 ERA in his postseason career over 27-plus innings and a 5.45 ERA over his last seven starts.
Braves vs Astros series odds (Atlanta leads 1-0)
Braves: -156
Astros: +135
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Out), Mike Soroka (Out) Josh Tomlin (Out), Huascar Ynoa SP (Questionable), Charlie Morton SP (Out).
Astros: Jake Meyers CF (Doubtful), Pedro Baez RP (Out), Justin Verlander SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Houston. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Astros.
Braves vs Astros predictions
Braves ML (+100)
The Braves closed as +120 underdogs in Game 1 and from the first batter — a Jorge Soler lead-off bomb — took the lead and never looked back. Atlanta scored in each of the first three innings and led 5-0 by the time Dusty Baker went to his bullpen. The Astros struggled to get innings out of their starters in the ALCS and it could be a problem again in the World Series.
The Astros definitely don’t have the pitching advantage Wednesday night, as Jose Urquidy has made just one postseason start this year and it was an ugly one: 1 2-3 innings pitched, allowing six runs on five hits and two walks as Houston would go on to lose that game 12-3. Urquidy will have a short leash tonight as Dusty Baker is more confident in his bullpen — seven innings pitched last night with one run on four hits — than his rotation right now.
The Atlanta lineup can go toe-to-toe with the bats of the Astros and with Soler jumping in on the DH spot, this Braves’ lineup is even more dangerous. They finished 12 for 38 last night, hit a pair of homers in a pitcher-friendly park, stole a bag, and totaled 20 bases. They finished 2 for 9 with runners in scoring position, meaning the victory could have been more lopsided.
The Houston bats will look to rebound after going 8 for 35 with no long balls. They went 1 for 9 with RISP as Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman combined to go 0 for 9 with five strikeouts. The bottom of this Houston order is more of a threat right now than the top three batters. It won’t get easier for them today as lefty Max Fried will climb the bump for the Braves.
The Dodgers got to the Atlanta lefty last time out but Fried was on a streak before getting hit hard in the NLCS. In his 10 previous starts before that, the young lefty went 5-0 with a 1.82 ERA, went at least six innings in each start, and threw two complete games. That loss in Game 5 of the NLCS was his first since July 28.
The Astros scored more runs versus left-handed pitching than any other team in baseball this year. Houston lost to southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez but beat Chris Sale twice and Carlos Rodon so far in the postseason. If you’re backing the Astros, their success against lefties is their biggest advantage... but Fried is quietly becoming one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball.
Last night’s game should've been priced at +110 while tonight’s game is offering a little expected value at +100, with this line predicting closer to -105. If this game was in Atlanta, the ML would be closer to Atlanta -125 to -130, so we’ll take the edge in pitching again for the second straight night.
Under 8.5 (+100)
Over bettors who got the worst number last night suffered a tough defeat. Yesterday’s total was at a flat 8.0 for some time but those who took the 8.5 that was available closer to first pitch lost by the hook.
These are two of the postseason’s best bullpens and have had to log a ton of innings. Both teams’ relievers are tough to bet against and hoping for early runs, even with Urquidy on the mound, might not be the best strategy.
We like Fried to bounce back tonight. He was too dominant for a long stretch of time to throw back-to-back clunkers. If he can go six innings — a rare feat in the playoffs these days — an Over sitting at 8.5 will be tough to get. Again: This was the best starting pitcher in baseball in the second half of this year.
Even if Urquidy comes out and throws a dud, Dusty Baker is not going to let things get out of hand and will have no problem going to his A-bullpen, even while trailing, knowing that tomorrow is an off day. Going down 2-0 and heading to Atlanta — where the Braves are a perfect 5-0 this postseason — is quite the handicap.
There were two home runs at Minute Maid Park last night but both were low-probability dingers. The park is playing a little short down the lines today, per Ballpark Pal, and the Astros’ home finished with neutral ratings in park home runs factors in 2021.
We don’t like hitting the Over unless we love the number (at 8.5 we don’t) and trust the bullpens to give it up (we don’t either). This leaves us with an Under 8.5 at +100. We doubt very much this number hits 9 and if it does, it will likely get hit quickly and settle back down on 8.5.
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