Buckle up for what should be an epic final week of the MLB season, as the race for the American League wild card is as close as it could be.
And no series this week will have a bigger impact on the race than the New York Yankees visiting the Toronto Blue Jays for a three-game set. The Jays open this huge series as a slight favorite to win Game 1, so, do the suddenly surging Yanks have value as an underdog?
Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Monday, September 28.
Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
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Yankees vs Blue Jays picks
Picks made on 9/28/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, September 28, 2021
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: WPIX, Sportsnet
Yankees vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.41 ERA): Taillon makes his first start since September 6 after suffering an ankle injury that landed him on the injured list. The right-hander has been a reliable arm for the Yankees this season and he allowed three runs on four hits over seven innings against the Jays in his last start before getting hurt.
Hyun Jin Ryu (13-9, 4.34 ERA): Ryu is also making his first start since an IL stint. The veteran lefty was sidelined for 10 days or so with a strained neck. Ryu was really struggling before the injury, getting torched for 12 runs on 13 hits in just 4 1-3 innings over two starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Questionable), Miguel Andujar LF (Questionable).
Blue Jays: Cavan Biggio UTL (Questionable), Joakim Soria RP (Questionable), Lourdes Gurriel LF (Probable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in Jameson Tallion’s last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.
Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions
Blue Jays (-125)
The Yankees are coming off a massive sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park over the weekend to take over the top spot in the AL wild-card race. While the Blue Jays trail the BoSox for the second wild-card spot by one game and the Yankees for the top spot by two. But Toronto enters this game with confidence after sweeping New York in a four-game set at Yankee Stadium earlier in September.
The Yankees have had an infuriating offense this season. They have plenty of talent, but lack consistency. As a result, they rank 20th in scoring and 20th in batting average. But led by Giancarlo Stanton, they could be getting hot at the right time, ranking ninth in average and third in OPS over the last two weeks.
The biggest question the Blue Jays face will be which Hyun-jin Ryu shows up. When Ryu is on and locating his fastball, he can be one of the hardest pitchers in the majors to barrel up. But that has been an issue for him lately, pitching to an 8.10 ERA over his last eight starts.
That said, he has pitched well against the Yanks, pitching to a 1.88 ERA while limiting them to a .189 batting average in four matchups this season.
Conversely, Tallion owns a 6.75 ERA in two starts against the Jays, who have gotten to him for a .333 average and three home runs. And the dingers may be a problem against one of the best offenses in baseball. Taillon’s 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings are among the worst in the MLB.
This is close to a must-win game for the Jays, as they can’t afford to drop further behind in the wild card race. Toronto has expanded capacity to 30,000, so the crowd should be rocking at the Rogers Center. With the more reliable offense, this is a good price to back the home team.
Over 9 (-110)
Even though the Over might seem a bit obvious here, I’m having a hard time convincing myself it won’t hit in this one.
For starters, both starters have had their fair share of struggles recently and are coming off stints on the injured list. While they weren’t long stints, starters are creatures of habit and can show a little rust in their first game back.
Additionally, the Blue Jays are second in scoring and batting average and lead the majors in OPS and home runs, and put up 25 runs in their four-game sweep of the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Yankees have plated 33 runs over their last five games.
While this could be a bizarro world game where the starters take over and dominate, if you have to put money on the total, we’re siding with the Over.
Yankees vs Blue Jays betting card
- Blue Jays (-125)
- Over 9 (-110)
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