Yankees vs Guardians ALDS Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Bombs Away Early For New York

We have a series. The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians head to Ohio tied at 1-1.

The pair split the games in the Bronx, with New York winning the first and Cleveland winning the second. Game 2 involved the Guardians coming back from a 2-0 deficit to win in extra innings, led by the heroics of Jose Ramirez. The win marked Cleveland's first divisional series win in their last eight tries.

Who will emerge victorious in Game 3 of this ALDS clash? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Guardians.

Yankees vs Guardians best odds

Yankees vs Guardians picks and predictions

The Guardians have a problem here. Pitchers that have had issues with the hard-hit ball and, in particular, barrel rate, are an issue against this New York lineup. I'm expecting the Yankees to take advantage of it. 

Triston McKenzie will take the mound for Cleveland, and he has seen this Yankees lineup already once this season. In that matchup, he was stellar. He went seven innings and gave up zero runs. Overall, it was probably one of his better outings of the season. 

So, why would I be fading him here? Well, that game was pretty long ago, and some oddities surrounded it. For example, it followed a doubleheader of the previous day. For whatever reason, New York rarely fared well in those circumstances this year. Secondly, the Yankees had three of the five hardest-hit balls in that game, they just hit them in the wrong spot. I'm looking for that luck to change here.

Besides the Braves, the Yankees have the best barrel rate and best hard-hit rate in remaining in playoffs. These are both direct weaknesses of McKenzie. He's posted a barrel and hard-hit rank in the bottom 10% of baseball. I assume he will not get away with having those issues twice against this Yankees lineup. In addition, I like the pure probability that's on my side from a few angles:

Aaron Judge has the best barrel rate in the Yankee lineup, and he's yet to record a single hit in the postseason.

McKenzie's season has been mirrored in inconsistencies. But, given that he's coming off a spotless performance, I will say he doesn't do it again. And giving up a few runs may be all that separates these sides.

The Yankees' peripherals go up when they see a pitcher for the second time in the season. Their batting average jumps 20% and becomes one of the best in the league. In this matchup, they'll be seeing McKenzie for the second time this season.

Along with the hitting angles we have that favor New York, I like this matchup for Luis Severino. He's been quite good over the last month and presents a unique challenge for this Guardians lineup. Yes, he's a high-volume strikeout pitcher, and yes, the Guardians don't strike out much at all. 

However, they have successfully avoided the strikeouts because of an immaculate chase contact rate. That's not how Severino gets batters to swing and miss. He's the rare strikeout pitcher who relies on pure velocity and not swings outside the zone. That's the type of pitcher that can give this Guardians lineup tons of trouble. 

I'm projecting the Yankees at -200 on the first five innings moneyline. I'll back them for the entire game, but I like them best early on. 

My best bet: Yankees first five innings moneyline (-115 at FanDuel)

Yankees vs Guardians ALDS odds

Teams	Odds to win series
New York Yankees	-160
Cleveland Guardians	+140

Yankees vs Guardians moneyline analysis

Obviously, I have a solid lean to the Yankees' full game here. I'm backing them to win the first five, and given the nature of their well-rested bullpen, an early deficit will be hard for the Guardians to overcome. 

Backing the Yankees early on affords me some other opportunities as well. 

If the game is tied after five innings, then I can hit the Yankees live. 

If they are trailing, I can look at their live moneyline or potentially look for alternative ways to back the Yankees. 

My pregame number on the Yankees full-game moneyline is -170. That's about 30 cents cheaper than my first five-inning number. So, I still see value in backing the Yankees full-game, but it's not quite the value I see in the first five innings. 

I've been pretty outspoken about why I thought this series was a problem for the Yankees but Game 2 was wildly misfortunate from their perspective. Cleveland scored its go-ahead runs on two blimp hits and, throughout the game, saw several bounces go its way. 

Baseball is sometimes fickle, but I think the worm turns here. New York is good in these spots, and it has a clear advantage on the mound. I'm not going to have a side pregame, but if I can get a good number live, I may jump in.

Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under analysis

I'm not going to touch this total. If either pitcher gets blown up early, the game plan for the respective managers changes majorly. They'll save arms for the next game, and you may see more runs than expected. If that happens, then the Over will look like the right bet. 

However, if this one is tight throughout, even if there are a few runs here and there, things trend majorly to the Under. Yankees manager Aaron Boone hasn't been shy about saying arms won't be saved for a Game 4 if he thinks he has a chance to win. 

Say we have a scenario where the Yankees open up a 2-1 lead early in the game. I could see the runs slowing later. Managers will have much quicker hooks, and you'll see the team in the lead going all out for the win. Without knowing how the game flow of this one is going to play out, I don't want to touch it pregame.

My only move here will be to grab the in-game Under if there's an early exchange of runs. Otherwise, I'm not going to touch it. More than usual, the manager's moves will be directly influenced by the scoring. Because of that, picking a side on the total has much more variance, and that's a variance I'd like to avoid. 

Yankees vs Guardians trend to know

The Guardians are 1-7 in their last eight divisional series games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Yankees vs Guardians game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18 ERA): Severino is a high-volume strikeout pitcher who relies on elite velocity to get the job done. Like many pitchers that rely on the fastball a ton, Severino has issues with the hard-hit ball. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity place him in the bottom 25% of qualified pitchers.

Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA): He's battled issues of inconsistency throughout the season, but when McKenzie has been good, he's been really good. McKenzie is a heavy fastball pitcher, and in June, he made three quality, consecutive starts without surrendering an earned run. The reverse is giving up 11 combined runs in back-to-back starts a month after. 

It perfectly illustrates who he is as a pitcher. He can be dominant, but he can also be dominated because of a barrel and hard-hit rate near the bottom 10% of all pitchers.

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