The New York Yankees thumped the Philadelphia Phillies in front of the Philly crowd last night, but don't let recency bias persuade you from taking the Bronx Bombers this time around.
A look at the pitching matchup has my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions all in on the home side to get back at N.Y. on July 30. Find out all about it in the MLB picks ahead.
Yankees vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This line movement that's heavily in the New York Yankees' direction is far too exaggerated. It's also far too disrespectful of Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola. My projections made Philly roughly a -130 favorite, and I'm getting it close to a coinflip price.
The story last night was about betting New York — the best fastball-hitting team in the league — would succeed against Zack Wheeler, who throws fastballs often. That's not the case tonight.
Nola will throw a variety of pitches, including a knucklecurve, which hasn't exactly been kind to Yankees hitters. As usual, Nola has been solid this season and is maintaining the same consistency he's had throughout his career.
He's limited hard contact, ranking highly in baseball in that category in the 78th percentile, which will be essential against the Yankees. In addition to that, he's created a high amount of chase on his pitches. That's another issue for New York, as it has the eighth-highest whiff rate in baseball and a chase rate just above the league average.
On the other side is Gerrit Cole. Frankly, it's hard to get a real clear idea of where the righty is. After a couple of stellar seasons that included a Cy Young, he's looked pretty pedestrian this season since his return from injury.
In two of his last four starts, he's allowed four or more runs and mixed them in with two solid starts in between those two. The problem in this matchup, though, is his barrel issues.
A barrel rate in the Bottom 8% has plagued him all season. Between Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and others, there are plenty of batters in this Phillies lineup to punish that.
Yankees vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Kyle Schwarber
Batters barrelling up the ball have been the biggest source of Cole's struggles this season. Schwarber may be one of the best of those in baseball.
There's more to like, though. He should see a heavy dosage of fastball tonight with Cole on the mound, and Schwarber leads the Phillies in barrel rate and hard-hit rate against that pitch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Phillies odds
Yankees vs Phillies live odds
Yankees vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-182) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: New York +112 | Philadelphia -132
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Yankees vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Over has been a great bet when these two teams have met, going that direction in eight of the last 10 meetings.
- After opening as plus-money underdogs, we've seen the Yankees flip to a slight favorite across the market.
- New York will enter this game coming off of three straight wins, its longest win streak in almost two months.
- Philly has had a rough run, losing seven of its last 10 games.
Yankees vs Phillies trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 74 games (+15.80 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.
Yankees vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (3-2, 5.40 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.44 ERA) |
Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries
Yankees vs Phillies weather
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