Playoff baseball will be in the atmosphere at Tropicana Field tonight as the Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees as -135 MLB betting favorites.
With a low total of 7, pitching will rule tonight but the books don’t think it will come from Domingo German, whose total out market is at least one full out off projections.
I’m backing the now-healthy New York right-hander vs. a Tampa offense that might be the worst of all playoff teams. Find out where my best bet lies in my free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rays.
Yankees vs Rays best odds
Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions
My best bet: Domingo German Over 15.5 total outs (+100 at bet365)
Domingo German will see a Tampa lineup tonight that is more worried about playing the matchup game than putting in its best bats. Tampa sits in the Bottom 10 in slugging while also striking out at the seventh highest rate in baseball. It also sees 3.89 pitches per at-bat, which is right at the league average.
German has made eight starts this season and is back to full strength after a shoulder injury had him on the shelf until July. He went seven-plus innings in his last outing and needed just 79 pitches. He also took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He’s throwing strikes at a 67% rate and THE BAT projects him to get 17.2 outs with a leash of around 90 pitches.
Domingo Germán ends the 5th with a strikeout and has yet to allow a hit tonight!#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/GcbSowW26J
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) August 28, 2022
With a weak opposing lineup, a pitcher who throws strikes and gets below-average contact on his off-speed pitches, German is in a perfect spot to top his out market which is too short. He’s allowing under a hit per inning and has just nine walks across 42-plus innings. His projected pitch count isn’t massive, but he makes up for it with efficiency.
The New York starter has topped this mark in three of his last four starts and this should be the norm going forward as he’s well past the earlier shoulder injury that kept him out of action until late July.
German saw the Rays at Yankee Stadium three starts ago and although the Rays took him for three runs, just five of the 13 balls hit into play were hard hit.
This line moved from +120 to +100 while I was writing this but still has value over one full out vs. the projection.
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Yankees vs Rays betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Rays opened as -125 ML favorites but the line has moved 10 points to -135 thanks to some confidence in the market. A lot of the pricing has to do with the Rays at home, as they are 42-23 SU at the Trop, which ranks as the third-best home record in the American League.
However, I don’t see either team having an edge in starting pitching. German is back to full strength after missing nearly 100 games but this is still a pitcher who is crazy efficient. He's striking out over a batter per inning over his career while also allowing less than a hit per inning. He isn’t getting enough respect in this ML pricing.
Jeffrey Springs has been a great surprise for the Rays this year but he is coming off a tough start in Boston (five runs over six innings) and will see a stronger lineup than the last time he faced the Yankees.
I’m giving the Yankees the offensive advantage today despite their well-documented struggles and Anthony Rizzo out. New York is still the best run-producing AL team vs. left-handed pitching and has seen Springs twice this year. The results haven’t been great but adjustments will be made. New York had a lineup with Jose Trevino in the No. 5 spot last time, so today’s matchup will be more difficult for the Tampa starter.
Looking at bullpens, the Rays have better arms thanks to New York’s injuries, but this is still a battle of two of the best bullpens in baseball. Clay Holmes is back and healthy and the Yankees can bridge the later innings just as well as the Rays. With the day off yesterday, both bullpens are at full strength.
The line suggests this game would be close to a pick‘em at a neutral site, so betting on the Rays is more or less a bet on home-field advantage because New York isn’t at a disadvantage in hitting or pitching.
Over/Under analysis
Books are expecting this to be another low-scoring meeting. The total opened at 7, hit 7.5, and is teetering between 7 and 7.5 as of this afternoon.
The reason for this low total, without elite starting pitching, is the state of both offenses and some rested bullpens.
Tampa will have no issues going to the pen if Springs falters early and with one of the best stable of relievers in baseball, late runs might be non-existent tonight.
German will flirt with six innings of work and also hands things off to a bullpen with the second-best ERA in baseball and has weathered injuries all season.
The Yankees’ offense can flex its muscle at times but this team has been profitable to the Under thanks to some cold bats. The books are well aware of the team’s struggles to plate runs and that’s why were are seeing a total of 7 at many books when the last meeting closed at 8.5 with German vs. Corey Kluber.
If both bullpens were coming into this matchup heavily used, I’d assume the total would be 7.5 leaning to the Over but both teams were off yesterday and the bullpen blueprint is likely already drawn up.
With late runs likely not coming, I’d certainly be looking to hit the Under at 7.5.
Yankees vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Friday, September 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Sun
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (2-2, 3.19 ERA): German will be making his ninth start this season after a shoulder impingement put him on the 60-day injury list. He is coming off a great start where he recorded 23 outs on just 79 pitches. He also pitched into the seventh inning in the previous start which was vs. a legit lineup in the Mets. His command has been great (nine walks over 42 2-3 innings) and he's giving up less than a hit per inning.
Jeffrey Springs (6-4, 2.76 ERA): Springs might be the ace of this rotation with Shane McClanahan out. The lefty opened the season in the pen, moved to an opener, and now is consistently going 15 to 18 outs. His fastball sits in the low-90s and mixes in a changeup and a slider. Tampa is 17-9 SU in the games he’s started and the Yankees are hitting just .175 vs. Springs across two starts this season (11 innings).
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0-2 in the Yankees’ last eight games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
