It could all be over tonight when the New York Yankees meet the Kansas City Royals.
Kansas City is on the brink of elimination after Giancarlo Stanton stole the show. With another significant pitching disadvantage on the mound, we expect it to end tonight.
Read on for my postseason MLB picks for Thursday, October 10th. We've also got a trio of Yankees vs. Royals props, courtesy of analyst Kenny Ducey, to fill out your betslip.
Yankees vs Royals prediction
Who will win Yankees vs Royals Game 4?
In last night's postgame presser, Stanton emphasized that the New York Yankees needed to "wrap things up" this evening. I suspect that sense of urgency will treat them well, and they'll win the game. New York has its ace on the mound in Gerrit Cole, and just like it was in game one of this series, there is an outsized pitching mismatch that may be too much for the young Kansas City Royals to overcome.
My Yankees vs Royals best bet
Pick
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
In some ways, you could copy and paste my analysis from Game 1. Our best bet was that the Yankees would lead after five innings because of an outsized pitching mismatch, and we cashed that wager. Not much has changed here except the number. That number, however, has forced us to look elsewhere for value.
My projections put the Yankees at -158 on the moneyline and set the total at 7.2. Both numbers are nearly in direct line with the oddsmakers' numbers for this one. So, to the prop market, we go.
Juan Soto has been great in his career against tonight's KC starter, Michael Wacha.
In his first outing against Wacha, Soto went 2-for-2. Despite a quiet Game 2, Soto has been strong in this series and found himself on base at least once in every game. The thing that's great about this matchup (and likely part of the reason Soto has hit over .300 against him in his career) is that multiple strengths in his game are weaknesses for Wacha.
Wacha's biggest issue this season has been a horrendous barrel rate that places him in the bottom 30% of the sport. As you might imagine, that's quite an issue when facing Soto, who has one of the best barrel rates, placing him in the Top 5% of that metric.
In addition to the barrel rate issues, oddly enough for Wacha, the pitch he trusts the most — the changeup — and throws the most has produced uneven results this year.
He's thrown it just over 30% of the time, and while it's produced a batting average under .200, that's also come with a run value that's just about average, meaning the hits that have come against it have been quite productive. Soto is the best changeup hitter on the Yankees roster. He leads the team in slugging, hard-hit rate, and batting average against that particular pitch while also sitting in the Top 1% of baseball in run value against it.
With all of the favorable angles for Soto in this matchup, I expect him to continue what's been a productive postseason and lead the Yankees to the ALCS.
Yankees vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5
Yankees moneyline
We're getting about fair pricing on the Yankees to win the game, give or take a few cents. That said, we see a small value when paired with Soto to go Over his bases total. Over the last month, when Soto has gone Over 1.5 bases, the Yankees have a sparkling record with wins in about 70% of their games. In other words, it's correlated to their success.
Tonight, I expect the Yankees to key on the barrel struggles of Wacha and for Cole to show some vintage Cole stuff in a clinching game for New York.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Royals odds
Yankees vs Royals live odds
Yankees vs Royals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -155 | Kansas City +130
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+110) | Kansas City +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Yankees vs Royals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 games, losing bettors nearly two units.
- New York now has a commanding head-to-head advantage vs. Kansas City, having won seven of the last 10.
- The Under has been a good bet when the pair have met, with four of the last five meetings going in that direction.
Yankees vs Royals trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 49 of their last 81 away games (+19.00 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
Yankees vs Royals Game 4 info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
Yankees vs Royals weather
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