Yankees vs Tigers Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Carpenter Has Tools to Handle Stroman

Prop bet #1: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 total bases

+115 at bet365

Marcus Stroman gets the call for the New York Yankees, meaning it’s time to ride the fade train. The diminutive 33-year-old has some desperate underlying numbers this season with a 4.95 xERA and 5.15 FIP, so we shouldn’t expect his fortunate 4.01 ERA to hold for long. 

The soft-tossing veteran doesn’t generate strikeouts (16.6% K-rate, ninth percentile) and issues too many walks (9.9% walk rate, 25th percentile). He’s been hit especially hard by left-handed batters, surrendering a 5.59 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. 

The Detroit Tigers don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers, but they do have one player known for punishing RHP. That batter’s name is Kerry Carpenter, and he sports a noteworthy 179 wRC+ and .424 wOBA against RHP.

The 26-year-old returned to the lineup on August 13 after hitting the 60-day IL in late May. He’s been a force ever since, going 5-for-16 with three home runs and five RBI. 

The Virginia Tech product has gone under the radar due to his lengthy absence, but his underlying metrics are worth noting. Carpenter has some fantastic numbers with a .380 xwOBA, .581 xSLG, 17.8% barrel rate, and 49.2% hard-hit rate. 

I’ll take the outfielder to record two or more total bases for slight plus money.

Prop bet #2: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 hits allowed

+115 at DraftKings

Tarik Skubal is by all means an elite starting pitcher. His 2.53 ERA is supported by his xERA (2.82) and FIP (2.64) and there aren’t many holes to poke in his game. I’m bullish on him heading into this contest.

Which prop is best to choose to back the dominant southpaw? The books set his hits allowed prop at 4.5 and I’m paying close attention considering he’s gone Under his hits allowed prop in seven of his last nine outings. 

The Yankees are known to have a productive lineup, but they haven’t been quite as potent against LHPs. They rank 24th in BA (.233) against lefties on the year and have a mediocre .716 OPS. 

Skubal is a standout in any metric you choose and his .211 xBA is especially relevant. He also ranks in the 91st percentile or above in xERA, whiff rate (32.2%), K-rate (30.5%), and walk rate (4.9%). 

Prop bet #3: Parker Meadows Over 1.5 H+R+RBI

-110 at BetMGM

I’m going back to the well fading Stroman for my final player prop of the evening. He’s been so bad against left-handed batters that I’d be remiss if I didn’t take some chances with Detroit bats swinging from that side of the plate. 

Parker Meadows typically features in the lineup against righties and has -110 odds to exceed 1.5 H+R+RBI. The 24-year-old is averaging 2.1 H+R+RBI across his last 10 games, making him an appealing candidate to ride the Stroman fade train.

Stroman’s most-used pitch is his sinker, which is notable considering Meadows crushed sinkers with a .357 BA and .571 SLG a year ago. He hasn’t been quite as effective this season but his .251 xBA and 42.9% hard-hit rate is still better than nearly any other pitch type. 

Meadows is a young player and had his fair share of struggles in the early part of the season, but he’s heating up with a 141 wRC+ in August. He proved that he can crush Triple-A pitching (129 wRC+) and is beginning to show signs of promise in the big leagues, which is enough for me to become a buyer in a favorable matchup.