The San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers are dealing with key injuries as they clash tonight in a matchup that will be without Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and LeBron James.
Los Angeles may be without the face of its franchise but it still has the recently acquired Luka Doncic putting on a nightly show (which has Dallas fans punching the air) — and my Spurs vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Monday, March 17 expect Doncic to highlight a high-scoring game.
Spurs vs Lakers prediction
My best bet: Over 228.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Just because three All-Stars won’t be on the hardwood in L.A. tonight doesn’t mean this game will lack for offense. If anything, not having Wembanyama — who was the overwhelming favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year before being ruled out for the season — should mean even less defense.
It’s been a disappointing season for the San Antonio Spurs but the emergence of NBA Rookie of the Year candidate Stephon Castle should help lessen the blow of losing Fox. With the UConn product playing alongside the ageless Chris Paul and Devin Vassell, plus Harrison Barnes suddenly turning back the clock, San Antonio has hit the Over in eight of its last nine games.
The Spurs sit 14th in the league in both points per game (114.2) and offensive rating (114.6) while ranking third in 3-pointers per game (13.9), so they should be able to do enough for this Over to hit against a James-less Los Angeles Lakers team.
Luka Doncic & Co. can do the rest with the five-time All-Star truly hitting his stride in the City of Angels: He’s dropped 30-plus points in six of his last eight games while hitting double-digit assists three times in that stretch — and San Antonio’s defense isn’t going to be able to stop Doncic’s hot streak.
The Spurs are just 25th in defensive rating (116.9) and 23rd in points allowed per game (116.5). They’re giving up the eighth-most threes (14.0) per night and allowing the seventh-highest field goal percentage (47.3%).
It also won’t be just Doncic lighting up the scoreboard, as Austin Reaves also has put up 28+ points in three straight, and add in some soft Lakers defense — they’ve conceded 126+ points in two of their last three games — and this matchup it set up to go Over.
Spurs vs Lakers same-game parlay
Over 228.5
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 threes
Stephon Castle Over 19.5 points
After a slow start from behind the arc with Los Angeles — shooting 24.1% in his first seven games — Doncic has turned it on from deep. He’s shooting 41.9% on threes in his last seven games, hitting at least four triples six times.
To keep up, Castle will need to step up his scoring for the Spurs. He proved last year that he’s at his best in March (while leading the UConn Huskies to a national championship) and that’s continued in his first NBA season — he’s hit the 20-point mark in six of his last 10.
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Spurs vs Lakers odds
Spurs vs Lakers live odds
Spurs vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Spurs +10.5 | Lakers -10.5
- Moneyline: Spurs +400 | Lakers -550
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Spurs vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles opened as a 10.5-point home favorite, but has seen the spread slowly shift in San Antonio’s direction with most books offering the Lakers -8.5.
- Los Angeles is one of the best teams ATS in the NBA at 37-28-1 while San Antonio is one of the worst at 29-37.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 222.5 for this matchup with it steadily climbing up to between 228.5 and 229.5.
- The Lakers are just 31-35 betting the Over this season, but the Spurs are one of the best in that category at 37-29.
Spurs vs Lakers trend
The San Antonio Spurs have hit the game total Over in 20 of their last 29 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Lakers.
How to watch Spurs vs Lakers
| Location | Crypo.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Monday, 3-17-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
Spurs vs Lakers latest injuries
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