We, the general public and the gambling public, have not properly understood how bad the Philadelphia 76ers are without Joel Embiid. Losing the MVP before he could be eligible to win the MVP was obviously going to dampen Philadelphia’s season, but the 76ers are now worse than the Hornets, Spurs, and Trail Blazers.
That is not an exaggeration.
Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are, you know, the Boston Celtics. So if tonight’s double-digit spread feels too lofty in the NBA odds, understand that is the kind of dichotomy being considered in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview 76ers vs. Celtics on Tuesday, February 27.
76ers vs Celtics odds
76ers vs Celtics predictions
Joel Embiid played in one abbreviated game since injuring his knee against the Pacers on January 25, missing 11 games outright. In those 12 games, the Philadelphia 76ers’ net rating has ranked No. 27 in the NBA, more than a point behind the Hornets, two points behind the Spurs, and — prepare yourself for this one — nearly five points worse than the Pistons.
Philadelphia’s net rating is 19.7 points worse without Embiid, and the offensive and defensive splits are both ugly. The 76ers are 11.3 points worse in offensive rating and 8.4 points worse in defensive rating without the defending MVP.
And naturally, the Boston Celtics defensive rating ranks No. 8 in that same stretch.
More specifically, Boston’s defense tends to show up even in expected blowouts. In games with the Celtics as double-digit favorites, opponents have fallen short of their team totals in 12 of 20 games. That may not be an overwhelming trend, but some of the eight Overs are clear exceptions...
The Hawks, for example, were an offensive-focused team that cleared its total by exactly half a point. The Lakers, for another, are led by some guy named LeBron. Meanwhile, the Rockets went Over their team total in mid-January only because the Celtics were winning by 35 points, and the Timberwolves had two All-Stars on the court in early January.
Remove those obvious oddities, and opponents have cashed their team total Over just once in their last eight games as double-digit underdogs against Boston. That may seem like selection bias, but those thoughts all apply to Philadelphia.
Barring a complete and total blowout, the expectation should be that the Celtics keep the 76ers below 100 points tonight, let alone their team total of 109.5.
My best bet: 76ers team total Under 109.5 (-120 on DraftKings)
76ers vs Celtics same-game parlay
76ers team total Under 109.5
Tobias Harris Under 16.5 points
Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 made threes
In his last six games, Tobias Harris has cleared this points prop just once. Harris’ shot has abandoned him of late, and until it returns, doubting the veteran against a defense like the Celtics makes a bounty of sense.
As for Kristaps Porzingis' prop, he has hit multiple shots from beyond the arc in seven straight games and 11 of his last 12. Does more need to be said?
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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76ers vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread has remained steady since Monday evening with the Celtics favored by 12.5. As big a number as that is, this will be the 21st time in 58 games — 36% of its season — that Boston has been a double-digit favorite.
In those previous 19 games, the Celtics are 11-8-1 against the spread.
Philadelphia has gone 5-9 ATS since Embiid’s initial injury, a .357 covering rate that is only a notch better than the Hawks’ .316, which is widely considered to be the worst ATS rate of all time.
This total opened at 229.5 before falling to 227 in Tuesday’s earliest hours, at which point it began a steady climb up to 231.5 late Tuesday morning.
76ers vs Celtics betting trend to know
Philadelphia’s last four games have all gone Under their totals, with the 76ers falling short of their team total in all four contests by an average of 13.25 points. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Celtics.
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76ers vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
76ers vs Celtics latest injuries
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