The big fella is back. Joel Embiid was the favorite to win a second straight MVP before he tore his meniscus and required surgery, but now, he’s back with about five games left to go in the regular season and much to be decided in the East playoff race.
Now, the Philadelphia 76ers have life. While they struggled to stay afloat with the reigning MVP sidelined, they immediately look dangerous now that he’s returned to the court. The NBA odds are against the 76ers fighting their way out of the play-in bracket, but they have a chance if they manage to win out the rest of the way.
Assuming they can avoid falling prey to the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, April 6 that is. The Grizzlies have had mostly G-League level roster for much of this season, but they have somehow managed to win three in a row.
My NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Grizzlies look at Embiid’s turnover prop for value on Saturday.
76ers vs Grizzlies predictions
My best bet: Joel Embiid Under 3.5 turnovers (-115 at betMGM)
The Philadelphia 76ers will go as far as Joel Embiid takes them. Those chances took a serious blow when he suffered his meniscus injury, but Embiid has looked surprisingly spry in his first two games back in action.
There have been the expected rust and conditioning issues, but I’m expecting those to improve rapidly now that he’s in the fold again.
Embiid is so valuable because he makes his teammates better, and he has improved dramatically as a playmaker this season. His timing and anticipation have made noticeable leaps.
But a big part of his improvement is where he occupies on the court has shifted over the past two seasons. He’s no longer as often on the low block and boxed in by the baseline, instead, he’s surveying closer to the elbows where it is much harder to double team from effectively.
It’s what has allowed him to improve his assist-to-turnover ratio by nearly 25%. While Embiid has increased his assist percentage to a career-best 31.5%, his turnover rate is slightly down on the season.
While Embiid did have six turnovers in his return game against the Oklahoma City Thunder — which is probably why these Joel Embiid odds are so high — that feels like an anomaly.
That was about the most difficult team in the NBA to return against for a player who plays like Joel. They’re small and they don’t play any traditional big man at all. Instead of allowing him to catch and dribble or survey the floor, they just swarmed him on every possession.
Embiid looked like a player who needed to get his timing back after a long layoff, but that trial by fire will ultimately be good for him and is a big part of why I think he’ll continue to clean up those mistakes on Saturday.
There are already signs he’s doing so. Embiid went against the Miami Heat on Thursday, another stout defensive team that can pressure the passing lanes with the best of them. Embiid had just one turnover in 33 minutes.
Like the Thunder, the healthy Memphis Grizzlies are among the Association's best teams at forcing turnovers. But this team is leaning all the way into tanking at the moment, having sat a whopping twelve players for last night’s game against the Detroit Pistons.
Their turnover-forcing rate hasn’t been nearly as high over the past several weeks as they run out these makeshift lineups.
The discipline it takes to double Embiid without conceding an easy pass and layup in return is going to be hard to conjure for a team with so many inexperienced players as this. I expect Embiid is going to manage the game on Saturday and keep his turnovers to a minimum.
76ers vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Joel Embiid Under 3.5 turnovers
Under 210.5
2nd quarter 76ers -3.5
For all the attention he gets as perhaps the league’s best outright scorer, Embiid also has a transformative effect on Philadelphia’s defense.
His presence, length, and activity completely change the opposing team’s shot charts. Shots at the rim and from three plummet, while the dreaded long two skyrockets in frequency. Per Cleaning the Glass opponents take about five percent more midrange shots when Joel is in the game, and those shots all come from what are otherwise looks at the rim or from the corner three.
That he also ensures that the 76ers score way more frequently allows them time to set their defense and avoid transition basketball as well.
The Grizzlies have managed to remain a strong defensive team as well, despite the injuries. That’s contributed to the Under going 24-12-1 in Grizzlies home games, the highest such rate in the NBA.
The Grizzlies issues always rear their head in the second quarter. Memphis has a -13.3 net rating in the second quarter this season, far and away the worst mark of any team. I expect that is when Philadelphia makes their push in this game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
76ers vs Grizzlies odds and trends
76ers vs Grizzlies live odds
76ers vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia -12 (-110) | Memphis +12 (-110)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -850 | Memphis +575
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
76ers vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The 76ers opened between 11.5 and 12-point favorites over Memphis, with some sportsbooks now offering it at as high as 12.5.
- The Grizzlies are just 15-22 against the spread at FedExForum this season.
- The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Saturday’s total came in low at just 208.5, but early action on the Over has seen that rise as high as 210.5.
76ers vs Grizzlies trend
The Under is 24-12-1 in Grizzlies home games. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Grizzlies.
76ers vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, April 6, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports SE-MEM, NBCSP+ |
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