Anthony Edwards Odds and Props: Nuggets Tough on Ant in Game 1

Anthony Edwards has catapulted from star to superstar after leading the Minnesota Timberwolves to a sweep of the Phoenix Suns in the opening round of the NBA playoffs. Not only was Edwards the best player on the floor in a series against future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant, but his confidence has given the T-Wolves some much-needed swagger.

Edwards and the Wolves face an even tougher foe in the Western Conference semifinals as they lock horns with the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Can Ant-Man rise to the occasion again, or are his player prop odds a bit too high for Game 1?

I let you know with my best free NBA picks for Anthony Edwards player props markets on May 4.

Anthony Edwards prop picks for May 4

• Under 5.5 assists
• Under 5.5 asts/Under 2.5 threes/Under 5.5 rebounds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Anthony Edwards best bet

Under 5.5 assists (-102)

Anthony Edwards was held to just 15 points in Game 2 against the Suns but he dropped at 32+ points in the other three contests. While Edwards' stats were up in the opening round, his usage rate actually ticked down to 30.4% from 31.4% during the regular season. It was Edwards' efficiency that skyrocketed, with the Timberwolves' All-Star shooting guard boasting an incredible 71.7 eFG% in Game 4 and 66.7 eFG% in the series opener. 

Considering that Edwards had a 52.2 eFG% during the regular season, don't expect that level of efficiency against the Nuggets. Especially since Ant-Man averaged 26.0 ppg on 51.8 eFG% in four regular season games versus Denver.

Denver is significantly better on the defensive end of the floor than Phoenix, finishing the regular season fifth in the league in points per game allowed (109.6) while the Suns were 13th (113.2). The Nuggets were even stingier at home, where they limited opponents to 108.7 ppg on 45.6% shooting.

With Edwards' burgeoning confidence, he should take plenty of shots, so he might eclipse his points total even with lower shooting percentages. However, it will be tougher for him to maintain his assist numbers if his teammates struggle to score. Keep in mind that he had fewer than 5.5 assists in eight of his final 11 regular season games, which included a pair of contests in Denver. 

Prop: Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 assists (-102 at DraftKings)

Anthony Edwards same-game parlay

Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 assists

Anthony Edwards Under 2.5 threes

Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 rebounds

+600 at bet365

Edwards can get buckets from every level, but he tends to be a bit streaky from beyond the arc. He went just 6-26 (23.1%) from deep in four regular season games against Denver, and the Nuggets are one of the better teams in the league at defending the arc. 

Edwards was a monster on the glass in the first round, averaging 8.0 rebounds per game. However, he was far less effective on the boards during the regular season with 5.4 rpg. He barely made an impact in that area against the Nuggets, being held to just a pair of rebounds in two meetings and grabbing four boards in another.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pages related to this topic