The stars will be out in La La Land tonight, and I mean on the court, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard's Milwaukee Bucks visit LeBron James and Anthony Davis' Los Angeles Lakers.
The Bucks were arguably playing their best basketball of the season heading into Wednesday’s matchup against the Golden State Warriors. So, of course, they put on one of their worst performances of the year, which included a nine-point fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Lakers still can’t find any consistency, and are just 4-4 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in eight games since the All-Star break.
The NBA odds are giving Milwaukee the slight edge tonight, so does L.A. have value as a home underdog? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Lakers on Friday, March 8.
Bucks vs Lakers odds
Bucks vs Lakers predictions
The Milwaukee Bucks have come flying out of the All-Star break. They won six games in a row straight up and against the spread and have climbed into second place in the Eastern Conference.
And despite Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors, there are a lot of positives to take away from the Bucks’ play recently. Their defense is in a much better place from where it was earlier in the season, but what’s going to make Milwaukee a problem in the playoffs is how Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard continue to improve their play together, seemingly with each passing game.
Having a shot creator and maker like Dame play next to Giannis is a really special thing and incredibly difficult to defend. And it creates lots of shooting opportunities for Lillard, who is starting to make it look like Dame Time once again from beyond the arc.
Lillard, who is a career 37.1% 3-point shooter, is hitting just 35% of his attempts from deep this season. Those numbers are taking a turn in the right direction. Lillard is shooting 44.2% from 3-point range on his 8.7 attempts over his last six games. And tonight he gets a juicy matchup against a lax Los Angeles Lakers perimeter defense.
The Lakers’ effort at the defense end of the floor has been a big reason for their inconsistency this season. They rank 17th in defensive rating but the 3-point line has been the biggest problem. L.A. surrenders the third most 3-point attempts and makes per game, and ranks 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Simply put, the Lakers just aren’t well equipped to deal with Dame, who has drained four or more 3s in four of his last six games. At plus money, it’s worth backing Lillard to make it five of seven in tonight’s matchup.
My best bet: Damian Lillard Over 3.5 made 3s (+110 at DraftKings)
Bucks vs Lakers same-game parlay
I really like Lillard to produce buckets tonight, whether that is through 3s or assists. Lillard’s assist prop is sitting at 6.5 for this matchup, and he is averaging 6.7 assists per game this season. He’s gone Over this number in five of his last eight games and the Lakers allow the sixth-most assists per game to opponents. So, add Lillard to go Over 6.5 assists as well.
Another number that stood out to me in this matchup was Anthony Davis’ rebounding prop. It is sitting at 13.5 for this matchup against the Bucks. AD is legitimately the Lakers' best rebounder by a large margin and is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game. But this is a big number.
Milwaukee is a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team, ranking 17th in rebounding rate. But between Giannis, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez, they have the bodies to battle Davis in the paint. Davis has stayed below this number in five of his last seven games.
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Bucks vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread for this star-studded NBA matchup has seen a good amount of action already. The line opened with the Lakers as 1-point home underdogs but the Bucks took the early money with the spread moving the Lakers to +2.5. But there has been some Lakers buyback and the line has returned to the opening number.
LeBron James is currently listed as questionable to play in this game with an ankle injury. But this movement has me feeling that James will suit up for this matchup.
That said, I would lean toward the Bucks at this number. Milwaukee is trending in the right direction and even with the ugly loss to the Warriors, the team ranks second when it comes to defensive rating since coming out of the All-Star break. The Lakers have the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA over the same stretch.
Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 232 and early bettors jumped on the Under, with the number dropping down to 230.5 as of Friday afternoon.
The Bucks, in part to their improving defense, have gone on an impressive Under run, cashing the Under in 15 of their last 17 games overall, including the last seven games overall. This number is still just a little high, and I would look at yet another Bucks game to fall Under the total.
Bucks vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Under is 15-1-1 in the Bucks' last 17 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Lakers.
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Bucks vs Lakers game info
Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
Date: | Friday, March 8, 2024 |
Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | ESPN |
Bucks vs Lakers latest injuries
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