The Boston Celtics’ road form has been rock solid all year, and they get the favorites tag as they take on the Miami Heat tonight at Kaseya Center.
But both teams could be without key scorers here, so my Celtics vs Heat predictions pivot toward productive outings for two talented big men.
Check out my top NBA picks and betting angles for this February 10 battle.
Celtics vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 27.5 points + rebounds (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Now that the Jimmy Butler saga is finally behind them, the Miami Heat are following a new leader on the court — and Bam Adebayo has looked ready for the extra responsibility over the last few weeks.
With question marks over the availability of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Tyler Herro, it’s tough to fully evaluate this matchup, but Adebayo stands out as a value pick after flashing All-Star form lately to keep the Heat afloat.
Bam has been a consistent scoring threat across his last seven outings, scoring 17 or more points in each of those contests, including a 30-point effort against the San Antonio Spurs last weekend.
He’s shooting 56% from the field so far in February, and I’m taking the Over on this points + rebounds combo prop.
While this pick largely hinges on Adebayo showing up offensively, his work on the glass has been almost as steady as his bucket-getting, with double-digit boards in eight of his last 11 matchups. The emergence of rookie Kel’el Ware has allowed Erik Spoelstra to lean on a bigger frontcourt, and that’s also given Bam more freedom to roam defensively.
Adebayo scored at least 20 points in all five playoff games against the Boston Celtics last season, and I see him extending that streak tonight, especially if Herro misses out. In a clash that could be short on star power, Bam has a path to a monster stat line.
Celtics vs Heat same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo Over 27.5 points + rebounds
Kristaps Porzingis Over 7.5 rebounds
Heat +6.5
30% boost available
While Adebayo is critical for the Miami defense, Kristaps Porzingis provides most of the rim protection for Boston. He sat out with an illness on Saturday against the New York Knicks, but he’s not on the injury report for tonight, and I like the Over on a line of 6.5 rebounds here.
Porzingis has finished with at least seven boards in four of his last six games, and he should walk into a bigger tally if Tatum and Brown are ruled out. It’s also worth noting that the Heat limped to just 86 points in Friday’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets, so there should be rebounds up for grabs.
Though Miami is 21-29 ATS this season, a 6-point line feels too high, with Jrue Holiday already ruled out for Boston and the Celtics likely having to further reshuffle their rotation. After statement road wins in Cleveland and New York, I can see the visitors taking their foot off the gas a little tonight.
A well-coached Heat team should be able to stay within striking distance, and I’m wary of Boston’s erratic shooting after a shock loss to the undermanned Dallas Mavericks last week.
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Celtics vs Heat odds
Celtics vs Heat live odds
Celtics vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Boston -5.5 | Miami +5.5
- Moneyline: Boston -214 | Miami +185
- Over/Under: Over 220 | Under 220
Odds courtesy of bet365
Celtics vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Celtics are 8-2 in their last 10 matchups against the Heat, but they’re 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games this season.
- Miami is 12-10 at Kaseya Center this year.
- The Over is 7-3 in Boston’s past 10 contests, but five of the last seven games between these teams have cashed in the Under.
- The Under has been a winning ticket in 24 of the Celtics’ last 36 road games.
Celtics vs Heat trend
The Heat have hit the 1H moneyline in 45 of their last 79 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Heat.
How to watch Celtics vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, 2-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSB, FDSN |
Celtics vs Heat latest injuries
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