Bucks vs Spurs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Giannis Helps Buoy Bucks Bounce-Back

The Milwaukee Bucks are in the thick of the race for top seed in the NBA, tied for the second-most wins behind only the Celtics.

Their opponents Thursday night, the San Antonio Spurs, are racing in an opposite direction, with the second-fewest wins in the Association, setting themselves up for a chance at another top pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

The only reason they’re just nine-point dogs in the NBA odds is that Milwaukee will be traveling from the Midwest and playing the second night of a back-to-back.

Read below for my free Bucks vs. Spurs preview, complete with my free NBA picks for Thursday, January 4.

Bucks vs Spurs odds

Bucks vs Spurs predictions

What makes this year’s edition of the Bucks a little more suspect than their contending teams in past years? Defense. 

Milwaukee is allowing a whopping 119.7 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NBA, and sits a lowly 21st in defensive rating.

The Bucks coming off losses on both ends of a home-and-home set with the Indiana Pacers. After dropping a 122-113 decision at home, the Bucks were lit on fire in Indiana, as they lost 142-130 — the most points they have allowed in a game this season.

After taking a two-point lead into half, Milwaukee was vaporized by the Pacers in the third, getting outscored 47-29. 

The Bucks allowed Indy to shoot a crisp 55.6% from the field and their 3-point defense — which was third overall, limiting teams to 33.1% — was equally awful, as the Pacers shot 14-for-35, a sharp 40%.

If there is a get-right opponent, however, it’s the Spurs, who have just two wins in their last 28 games.

They’ve lost three straight, most recently a 106-98 L at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies. That came after getting absolutely blasted 134-101 by the Celtics on New Year’s Eve.

In the last two games, the Spurs have scored just 99.5 points per game. On the year, they’re 25th in scoring, putting up 110.9 points on average.

This will be the second and final meeting between these teams, with Milwaukee taking the opener at home 132-119, powered by a 40-bomb from Damian Lillard, who shot 7-for-12 from distance.

Giannis Antetokounmpo shot just 4-for-12 from the field for 11 points, but he also added 14 boards and 16 assists for a triple-double.

A notable absence in that one was rookie Victor Wembanyama, who missed the game with a sore ankle. Tonight, he’ll get an up-close look at Giannis in their first regular-season matchup.

The Bucks are 3-1-0 against the spread when playing the second night of a back-to-back. After getting drilled by the Pacers, I expect them to get back to winning in a big way.

My best bet: Bucks -9 (-110 at DraftKings) 25% boost available

Bucks vs Spurs same-game parlay

Bucks -9

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 34.5 points

Victor Wembanyama Over 18.5 points

25% boost available

+650 +813 at DraftKings

Giannis has been the Bucks’ leading scorer in seven straight games, but he’s only crossed the 34.5 total set for Thursday once, and that was the start of this scoring spree when he had 37 against the Orlando Magic on Dec 21.

Last time out against the Pacers, Giannis Antetokounmpo went for 26 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists, all team highs, which he accomplished in both Indiana losses.

The 26 points snapped a four-game stretch where he had topped 30+ points. 

I think Antetokounmpo plays hard no matter what, so he will be impactful, but this is not a “break glass in case of emergency” performance Milwaukee needs.

Playing on consecutive nights, look for the Bucks to spread the wealth, put this one into extended garbage time early, and have the stars all benched for the fourth quarter.

While Giannis goes Under, there’s no reason to think that the young Frenchman Wembanyama can’t string together another solid performance.

Wemby is coming off a 20-point, seven-rebound, four-block night against the Grizzlies, the third straight game where he’s topped 20 points.

Another 20+ point performance would match his personal-best streak of four straight this season. We know Milwaukee’s defense isn’t exactly airtight, and the 19-year-old will be out there for reps, blowout or not. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bucks vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at double-digits, but it’s been shaved down to mostly the 9.0-9.5-point range, most likely taking into account the Bucks having to play on consecutive nights.

That being said, the Spurs have been the best in this head-to-head, going 8-2-0 against the spread in the last 10, including covers on three of the last four matchups. 

Both teams are under .500 vs the spread this year. San Antonio is 13-20-0 ATS, while the Bucks are 15-17-1 ATS.

As for the total, the highest number that’s come across sites is 250.5 points, though basically, every book has brought it down a point.

Both teams have seen the Over go an identical 21-12-0 in their games this season.

Bucks vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Spurs are 0-7 when playing with a rest advantage. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Spurs.

Bucks vs Spurs game info

Bucks vs Spurs latest injuries

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