After a brutal overtime loss to the LA Clippers on Sunday night, the Sacramento Kings will turn around to face a hungry New York Knicks team on no rest to begin this week.
With stars out for both sides, our Knicks vs Kings predictions will explain why New York may have the chance to exploit a glaring weakness in this Sacramento defense while holding strong on its own end.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Monday, March 10.
Knicks vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Knicks -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The New York Knicks suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Los Angeles Lakers following an injury to Jalen Brunson late in the game, and a day later they fought hard but fell by 10 to the Clippers. It’s evident that this offense misses its lead man, but it should be said that the Knicks have had a hard time scoring the ball in the last two weeks even with Brunson.
New York ranks eighth in defensive efficiency over that span, and the loss of Brunson may lead to further improvement on that end. When he’s been off the floor this year, opponents have seen a dramatic 4.5-point drop in their effective field goal percentage, a result of many more 3-pointers and long mid-range jumpers going down.
This is a crucial nugget for Monday’s game with the Sacramento Kings still hooting an overwhelming number of mid-range jumpers — the most in the league for the last 14 days, and on top of that, they’ve shot the 3 better than every team other than the Phoenix Suns.
Slowing this offense will be critical with so many questions regarding their own scoring without Brunson, made worse by the fact that Sacramento has led the league in defense over this aforementioned two-week span.
The fortunate news here is that Domantas Sabonis will be missing in action for Sacramento as well, which opens the door for more scoring at the rim for a Knicks team that has taken nearly as many shots from that area as it has from 3. Opponents have seen a near-five-point increase in field goal percentage with Sabonis off the floor.
As the Knicks lean on Karl-Anthony Towns to generate most of their offense, he should be greeted by a weaker frontcourt defense, and with the advantages they should have defensively with Deuce McBride locking down the mid-range in place of Brunson, they should get the job done.
Knicks vs Kings same-game parlay
Knicks -2.5
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 26.5 points
Josh Hart Over 6.5 assists
There are two men who will undoubtedly see larger roles without Brunson, and we’ll back them both in different areas.
Starting with Towns, we’ve covered how friendly the matchup should be here given the Kings’ drop in frontcourt defense when Sabonis isn’t playing — but what we haven’t said is that the Kings already had one of the worst rim defenses in the game prior to his injury.
Towns has averaged roughly 27 points in 36 minutes in two games without Brunson this season, taking 20.5 shots per game, and he should continue to be the workhorse on Monday.
I think Josh Hart should feed him the ball plenty down low for some easy buckets, and the Kings’ lack of a frontcourt defense in the last two weeks has led them to allow the 13th-most assists per 100 possessions even despite holding strong overall on defense.
In two games without Brunson this year, Hart has averaged an insane 45.5 minutes and has totaled 18 assists, missing this number by the hook last time out against the Clippers. He will take on plenty of the ball-handling duties here with the Knicks inclined to use McBride off the ball, and I expect a massive night as a result.
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Knicks vs Kings odds
Knicks vs Kings live odds
Knicks vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: New York +1 | Sacramento -1
- Moneyline: New York -110 | Sacramento -110
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sacramento was only the favorite here for a few hours as the line swung to the Knicks late on Sunday and has since risen as high as 3.5 points.
- The Knicks have taken on 59% of the bets and 69% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total fell 3.5 points in the span of four hours on Sunday night and shot down another two on Monday afternoon before bouncing back to 219.5.
- The Over has accounted for 80% of the tickets but just 45% of the money.
Knicks vs Kings trend
The New York Knicks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Kings.
How to watch Knicks vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Monday, 3-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | MSG, NBC Sports California |
Knicks vs Kings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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