The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night. In theory, this should be a marquee matchup between two of the top teams in the NBA, but Milwaukee won't have superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and will likely be missing All-Star point guard Damian Lillard as well.
With Milwaukee's two best players out of action, NBA odds have OKC installed as a 15-point home favorite, with the O/U at 223.5 for this clash. Here are my best free Bucks vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for April 12.
Bucks vs Thunder predictions
My best bet
Thunder first half -8.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The reason this spread is so wide is that Antetokounmpo has been shut down for the rest of the regular season with a calf injury, while Lillard is doubtful due to adductor soreness. Antetokounmpo is an All-NBA force on both ends of the floor, but the Bucks have gone 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in his absence this season. However, Lillard played in all of those contests and averaged 31.9 points per game. The Bucks are just 1-7 in games that Lillard has missed, so having the eight-time All-Star also sidelined is a massive blow for Milwaukee's NBA odds.
Even at full strength, the Bucks haven't been great on the road, going just 18-20 with an average first-half margin of -2.3 ppg. On the other hand, the Thunder have gone a sizzling 31-8 at home with a first-half margin of +5.1 ppg. This is an OKC squad that ranks fourth in the NBA in offensive and defensive rating and has routinely been blowing opponents out. The Thunder have 21 wins by 15+ points this season with 14 of those victories coming at Paycom Center.
Despite only two games remaining in the regular season, the Thunder still have something to play for since they're tied with Minnesota for the No. 2 seed in the West and trail first-place Denver by just one game. They should be especially motivated for this matchup since they faced the Bucks last month in Milwaukee and lost by 25 points.
The only reason I'm wary about backing the Thunder on the spread is because they could take their foot off the pedal if they build an early lead. Especially since they barely played their starters in the second half of their previous game after getting up big on San Antonio. Take the Thunder on the first-half spread instead.
Bucks vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)
Thunder first half -8.5
Chet Holmgren Under 8.5 rebounds
Josh Giddey Over 1.5 turnovers
30% boost available
Chet Holmgren is having an impressive rookie season but the rail-thin 7-footer hasn't been great on the boards, averaging a modest 7.9 rebounds in 29.7 minutes per game. He has gone below this number in six of his last nine games and there's a good chance that he'll see limited playing time if the Thunder get out to a big lead. In 20 Thunder games this season that have been decided by 20 or more points, Holmgren has logged just 25.5 mpg.
Josh Giddey has turned the ball over at least twice in eight straight contests, and he's averaging 3.3 turnovers per game during that span. I'm backing the Thunder to cruise to victory here, so expect the young guard to play fast and loose and not care much about ball security.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bucks vs Thunder odds
Bucks vs Thunder live odds
Bucks vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +10.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +610 | Oklahoma City -900
- Over/Under: Over 223 (-110) | Under 223 (-110)
Bucks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The lookahead line had this spread at -10.5 for OKC, but after news came out that Lillard was doubtful, it reopened at -14 before ticking up to -15.
- The O/U opened at 223 and has moved up to 223.5. While the Bucks are missing a combined 54.8 ppg from Antetokounmpo and Lillard, both teams play at a fast pace, so points should still be scored.
- The Bucks are coming off a 117-99 win against the Magic, where they didn't have Giannis and were 1.5-point home dogs. However, they've gone just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last nine games.
- The Thunder began the season going an incredible 23-9 ATS, but with higher expectations from oddsmakers down the stretch, they've gone just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.
Bucks vs Thunder trend
The Bucks have only covered the first half spread in 11 of their last 40 games on the road (-20.20 Units / -44% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Thunder.
Bucks vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WMLW, KSBI OKC |
Bucks vs Thunder latest injuries
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