Despite constant noise due to swirling Jimmy Butler trade rumors and recurring suspensions, the Heat have won two straight games thanks in large part to a jumbo lineup that’s found a way to succeed on both ends of the court. Miami has also received strong offensive performances from Tyler Herro.
My Cavaliers vs. Heat predictions expect Herro to have another big game in the scoring department on Wednesday, January 29. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Herro’s points prop.
Cavaliers vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Tyler Herro’s scoring line is set at 23.5 for -120 odds, but we can certainly do better. For just one more point, we can get this alt scoring line at -105. I like those odds more, so I’ll take the Over here in a phenomenal matchup.
The Cleveland Cavaliers defense has been cooked by opposing PGs this season, as the Cavs have allowed the most points per game to the position at 26.6. Over the last seven, Cleveland has surrendered a ridiculous 31.9 points to opposing floor generals, easily the most in the Association. In that same span, the Cavs’ perimeter defense has given up 4.9 triples good for — you guessed it — most in the NBA.
On the season, Herro has scored 25 or more points in 20 games. That includes five times over his last eight outings while averaging 26.8 points. Over his first 36 games, Herro attempted 17.4 field goals while shooting 46.9% from the floor. He went 3.8 for 9.5 from beyond the arc while hitting 40.2% of his triples. Over his last eight, Herro has shot 50% from the field while attempting 18.8 shots. He’s 4.1 of 10.5 on 3-pointers in that span.
Herro has taken on a heftier offensive load with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup, and he should have the green light to let it rip against a vulnerable Cavaliers defense. Herro finished with his second-highest scoring game of the season when he dropped 34 against the Cavs on December 8 at Kaseya Center. I’m excited to see what he does in tonight’s encore.
Cavaliers vs Heat same-game parlay
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points
Over 227
Kel’el Ware Over 13.5 points
Both teams have hit the Over more often than not this season, and they’ve combined for a 55-36 record to the Over. Cleveland ranks 11th in defensive rating on the season as a whole, but the team is 26th across its last 10. Opposing teams have had no trouble scoring against the Cavs in recent weeks, and the Miami Heat's below-average offense should get a boost in this matchup.
The healthy Cavaliers will face a tough Miami defense, but Cleveland’s offense has been elite all season and should be able to put up a healthy amount of points on the road. I’ll take the Over on this modest total.
Kel'el Ware has averaged 17 points per game across his last four in the starting lineup, scoring at least 14 points three times. He’s posted 16.1 points across his last eight overall as Miami experiments with new lineups and continues to give him increased opportunities.
In eight games with at least 20 minutes, he’s scored 14 points six times. In five games with at least 30 minutes, he’s averaged 21 points and hit the Over each time.
His points line is set far too low, and I’ll gladly take the Over.
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Cavaliers vs Heat odds
Cavaliers vs Heat live odds
Cavaliers vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland -7 (-110) | Miami +7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -300 | Miami +240
- Over/Under: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Cavaliers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland has covered in just four of its last 10, but the team is 30-16 ATS through 46 games.
- Miami has won and covered in two straight, but the team sports a 20-25 ATS record this season.
- The Cavaliers have hit the Over in six of the last 10, and the team is 30-16 to the Over.
- The Heat have hit the Over in five of their last eight and in 25 of 45 games this season.
Cavaliers vs Heat trend
Miami has won three straight and five of the last six head-to-head matchups with the Cavaliers. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Heat.
How to watch Cavaliers vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, 1-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN |
Cavaliers vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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