Celtics vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Celtics Can Keep Things Close

The Boston Celtics picked up a much-needed win over the Orlando Magic on Wednesday. Now, Jayson Tatum and Co. will be hoping to roll into South Beach to take down Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Miami has been absolutely dominant to start the year, which is part of the reason tonight’s NBA betting odds mostly have the Heat favored by 7. 

Will Boston find a way to pick up back-to-back road victories? You’ll want to keep reading our Celtics vs. Heat picks and predictions to find out. 

Celtics vs Heat odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Celtics were 7.5-point underdogs in this game at first, but Boston is now getting just 7 on most books. A majority of bettors are taking the Heat in this one, so it does appear that the Celtics are the sharp side. The total opened at 215.0 and can be found anywhere from 214.5 to 215.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Heat predictions

• Celtics +7 (-110)
• Under 215.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Celtics +7 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/4/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Thursday, November 4, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, BSSUN, NBCS-BOS

Celtics vs Heat betting preview

Injuries

Celtics: None
Heat: Max Strus G (Out), KZ Okpala F (Questionable), Victor Oladipo G (Out) 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Miami’s last four games against teams with losing records. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Heat.

Celtics vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Oddly enough, the road team has won both straight-up and against the spread in each of the last three meetings between these teams. Miami also happens to be just 31-52 against the spread in home November games since Erik Spoelstra became the team’s head coach. On top of that, Boston is 12-3 against the spread after having lost five or six of its previous seven games since the start of last season. That suggests that the Celtics generally tend to bounce back after lengthy stretches of poor play. 

Boston hasn’t matched up very well with Miami past years, but the team should feel pretty good about the lineup it is putting out against the Heat this year. Al Horford isn’t shooting the ball very well from the outside thus far, as the 35-year-old is shooting just 28.6 percent from deep. However, Horford has shot at least 35.0 percent from three in every year since the 2015-16 season. That’s pretty significant because Horford’s ability to shoot should pull Bam Adebayo away from the basket on defense. That would open up driving lanes for both Tatum and Jaylen Brown in this game. 

Jimmy Butler is capable of stopping one of those two Boston wings, but the other one should be able to go off for a big performance. The Heat are absolutely loaded this season, but they do have guys like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson scattered throughout the rotation. That means Miami’s defense is exploitable if a good offense is attacking it. This Celtics team is just 21st in offensive rating, but they should eventually click on that end. They have the right pieces to make it work against the Heat. 

Defensively, the Celtics have their work cut out for them against the Heat, who have gone to another level with Kyle Lowry at point guard. However, Boston has a lot of two-way players that can switch everything and make things tough on Miami. 

Prediction: Celtics +7 (-110) 

Over/Under analysis

Neither of these teams likes to speed things up too much, with both of them ranking outside the Top 10 in pace thus far. Boston is currently just 14th in the league, while Miami sits way down at 20th in the rankings. Also, while these teams have both undergone some changes, the cores of these groups have remained mostly intact. These players know each other very well and this should turn into a game where both are trying to grind out a win in the final quarter. 

Over the last three years, the Under is also 13-4 when Boston is playing against teams that hold opponents to 43.0 percent or worse from the floor. The Celtics are plenty capable of taking on a number of different styles, and they’ll be ready to go out there and play in a slugfest. It was just last night that Boston earned a 92-79 win over Orlando. 

Prediction: Under 215.5 (-115) 

Best bet

Since the start of last season, Boston is 5-2 against the spread as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Celtics are also 7-2 against the spread when playing the second night of a back-to-back in which both games were on the road. This Boston team is very good at locking in and focusing on the task at hand, even when not playing under ideal circumstances. 

The Celtics also really responded to Marcus Smart calling out the team a few days ago. The Magic aren’t anything special right now, but Boston did earn a double-digit win as a 7.5-point favorite. The Celtics also held the Magic to just 32.1 percent shooting from the floor. They have now held two of their last three opponents to under 40.0 percent shooting, so they are plenty capable of stifling this Heat offense here. 

Also, it’s not insignificant that Miami and Orlando aren’t all that far away from each other. So, while this is a road back-to-back for the Celtics, the travel wasn’t too strenuous. 

Pick: Celtics +7 (-110)

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