Celtics vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Luka Goes All Out

The Boston Celtics will aim to wrap up their visit to the Lone Star State with back-to-back wins as they face off against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, January 22. Boston went the distance against the Houston Rockets Sunday night, but strategically rested Al Horford and played a deep rotation with an eye on today’s matchup against Luka Doncic.

The Mavericks are coming off a long layoff and will look to get back in the win column after a dispiriting loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. NBA odds have them pegged as a home underdog tonight.

My NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Mavericks expect that Doncic will have a highly productive game given the unusual amount of time since Dallas’ last game.

Celtics vs Mavericks odds

Celtics vs Mavericks predictions

We’ve all heard the popular refrain “Don’t take LeBron James for granted” as he continues to put up historic stats on a nightly basis deep into his career. It’s important to pause and appreciate the greats while they’re still near the top of their game.

But though he’s a long way away from retirement, I’m here to say the same about Luka Doncic.

Because Doncic came into the NBA and nearly immediately ascended to perennial first-team All-NBA status, it’s all too easy to become numb to his absurd productivity. He’s up to career highs in points, assists, and efficiency this season, averaging 33.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists. Those are MVP numbers.

One of the primary reasons people are skeptical about the Dallas Mavericks and how Doncic plays is the sheer volume that falls on Luka’s shoulders. His 40.5% usage rate remains the highest in the league and one of the highest in NBA history.

Like most players, Luka plays better when he has a chance to recharge. It’s just that Doncic’s production is so gaudy that the impact in terms of counting stats is massive between when he’s rested and right and when he’s worn down. Part of the idea behind trading for Kyrie Irving was to alleviate the demand on Luka’s legs, to save some energy for the second half of the season and the playoffs.

But tonight's game sees Luka coming in with an unusual amount of rest for a regular season game —  against a depleted and tired opposition to boot.

Due to the tragic and sudden death of Golden State Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojević, the NBA postponed multiple games on the Warriors schedule, including one against Dallas. So, the Mavericks come into this game with a significant rest advantage. While the Boston Celtics played last night, the Mavericks haven’t played since Wednesday.

Luka has only had three games all season when he’s had three days of rest (tonight, he’ll have four). In those three games, all against top-quality opponents in the West, he’s averaging 36.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 12.3 assists, or 59.2 points, rebounds, and assists.

The Celtics broadcast on Sunday assumed that Kristaps Porzingis will sit out Monday on the second end of the back-to-back, which will force Al Horford and Luke Kornet into prominent defensive roles. Jrue Holiday is also questionable with an ankle injury that saw him miss Sunday night’s game, his absence would make Luka’s life much easier as well.

Doncic is also averaging 52.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists over his last 10 games. These Luka Doncic odds have fluctuated wildly in that stretch, and this is the first time in that period that this prop is available below 50.5.

These look like impossible numbers, but beating this line is the norm for Luka, not the exception.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 48.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at SIA)

Celtics vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Luka Doncic Over 48.5 pts+rebs+asts

Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 made threes

Dereck Lively II Over 7.5 rebounds

+370 at DraftKings Boost available

I, for one, was extremely skeptical when the Mavericks first began to float the possibility that they were going to start Dereck Lively II at center to begin the year. It seemed a lot to ask of the 12th pick in the draft.

While center isn’t the most difficult position to be dropped into as a rookie, it carries about as much responsibility as possible without being a primary ball-handler. When an NBA game moves too fast for a rookie, that damage shows up a lot more if they’re the last line of defense.

But Lively has looked like he belongs from day one, and the Mavs have missed his energy and rebounding a lot in the two recent stints he’s had to sit out with injuries. Lively is back in action now, though, for the third straight game and has had 23 rebounds combined over his previous two. Boston is a strong defensive rebounding team, but it almost entirely concedes the offensive glass. I think Lively gets enough on that end to hit this number.

Kyrie is having the best stretch of his short career as a Maverick. Much of that success has been because of a hot streak from the perimeter, and a newfound devotion to getting up a lot of attempts from outside.

Irving is averaging 3.6 made threes through nine games in January on 45.1% efficiency. As the Celtics allow a large number of opponent triples, I like him to add at least three tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Boston opened as -1.5 to -2.5 point favorites against Dallas and is available now at between -2.5 and -3.5 at most sportsbooks.

The rest advantage is highly unusual for a regular season game. The Celtics played on Sunday night while Dallas has been off for four full days. But the Mavs haven’t made much hay out of this scenario before, going just 2-5 against the spread when playing with a rest advantage this season.

Dallas is also wildly underperforming the spread over the past two weeks, to the tune of a -7.6 spread differential per Cleaning the Glass.

Boston’s ATS record on the road is far from inspiring, mind you, as they’re just 8-12-2. But in most of those games, they have been much heavier favorites than they are tonight. If I had a better sense of Holiday’s status, I’d be inclined to bet on the Celtics despite the rest disadvantage.

The total opened at 239.5 and has mostly held steady at that number. As the Celtics are on a back-to-back, there’s unlikely to be any injury update that could shift things significantly until almost tip time. Horford should be a go, but I’m skeptical that Kristaps will play again after last night and his recent knee issues. Jrue is the wild card, and his very inclusion could be enough to push this toward the Under.

Boston’s defense did an admirable job against the Denver Nuggets on Friday, even though they ultimately lost 102-100. But much like the Celtics had no answers for Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray, they don’t have an obvious way to slow down Luka. Dallas’ defense is also vulnerable to the size of Boston’s wings, so I think this high total is well-earned.

Celtics vs Mavericks betting trend to know

Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games with a rest advantage. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Mavericks.

Celtics vs Mavericks game info

Celtics vs Mavericks latest injuries

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