Celtics vs Pacers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Minutes Impacting Closeout Game Production

With the Celtics holding a 3-0 series lead and the Pacers' season all but over, Game 4 could see minutes go different ways on both sides. Read more in our Celtics vs. Pacers prop picks below.

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst
May 27, 2024 • 11:16 ET • 4 min read
Sam Hauser Boston Celtics NBA
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Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics are one win away from clinching the Eastern Conference and advancing to the NBA Finals, and we've searched through the NBA odds to find our favorite NBA player props for Monday's Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

If we were playing NBA 2K, this is where you'd hit "sim to end" if you're the Pacers, who are down 0-3 and most likely playing Game 4 without All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton. The series is basically over, but there are still some player props worth wagering on.

Find out why I'm betting on NBA player props for T.J. McConnell, Al Horford, and Sam Hauser in my NBA picks on Monday, May 27.

Best Celtics vs Pacers prop picks today

Picks made on 5-27 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Celtics vs Pacers player props for May 27

Prop bet #1: T.J. McConnell Under 14.5 points

Tyrese Haliburton is tagged as questionable with a hamstring injury ahead of Game 4. While I don't think he'll play, you only stand to gain from any news regarding Haliburton's status with this Under bet on T.J. McConnell. With his scoring prop trading at 14.5, he's being priced as if Haliburton isn't playing. This number will move if Haliburton is good to go.

He dropped 23 points in Game 3 without Haliburton, which makes hitting the Under on 14.5 a bit nerve-racking. Even if Haliburton doesn't play, I think this number is too high for McConnell. 

McConnell is incredibly efficient in short spurts, but as his minutes increase, you don't necessarily see his production per minute stay as high. He played 29 minutes in Game 3, and it was a perfect storm for him to see as many minutes as Rick Carlisle would be willing to give him. The Pacers were winning for most of the game and he wasn't in any foul trouble.

When evaluating this prop, I increased McConnell's minutes to 30, and we still have a nice edge on the Under 14.5 points (-115) at FanDuel. I'm hard-pressed to believe he'll even see 30 minutes because he only reached 29 in Game 3 under ideal circumstances. 

He puts his body on the line and plays with maximum effort. He's now coming off a Game 3 with elevated minutes and has to play the Celtics again with just one day of rest. Carlisle showed us in Game 2 that when the game was a blowout, McConnell wasn’t going to be on the floor. With the Celtics favored by eight points, the Pacers facing elimination, and a potential vacation to Cancun looming, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his minutes reduced.

The key to this bet, though, is that we don't need reduced minutes for our edge; we have a massive edge even if he plays 30 minutes. McConnell is projected to score 12.5 points on Monday, which justifies pricing the Under 14.5 points at -202. However, it's available at FanDuel at -115.

T.J. McConnell prop: Under 14.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Al Horford Over 1.5 assists

Al Horford has gone Under his assist total in all three games in this series and he only has one assist overall. That's about the last thing you'd want to read when I'm suggesting to lay some increased juice on Horford on Monday to go Over the total of 1.5 assists, but let me explain why.

For starters, his total has been adjusting with every Under. When the series started, Horford was trading with a total of 2.5, and we're now at 1.5 with increased juice. The move from 2.5 to 1.5 doesn't seem like a big deal, but when the number is already so low on an assist prop, this is a massive shift in probability.

In reality, Horford's just been incredibly unlucky when it comes to his potential assists converting. He has 13 potential assists in this series, and that's only converted into one actual assist. That is not normal and water will eventually find its level. With the total dropping from 2.5 to 1.5 (-145), I'm willing to bet on that occurring tonight.

Not only is it unusual for these potential assists to not convert, but there are also basketball reasons to believe Horford could be in line for even more potential assists. He made seven 3-pointers in Game 3 and Indiana's defense will have to adjust and contest more of his shots. If the defense is more aware of where Horford is from beyond the arc, it should lead to more swing passes by Horford and potential assists.

He's projected to have 2.3 assists on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -191, but it's available at bet365 at -145.

Al Horford prop: Over 1.5 assists (-145 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Sam Hauser Over 3.5 points

This has to be one of the funnier prop pick articles I've written because if you look through the box scores of this series, there's no way you'd want to place any of these bets. However, I love all of them. I'm going with Sam Hauser Over 3.5 points (-115). Hauser has scored a grand total of 2 points in this series, but let's be serious — he's not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes for the rest of his career.

When Adam Scherer and I were doing the NBA release show here at Covers last Thursday, we discussed the possibility of Joe Mazzulla going with a smaller lineup against the Pacers and Hauser potentially seeing increased minutes. We never placed the bet, but Mazzulla did end up giving Hauser 20 minutes of playing time.

Unfortunately, he went Under his total of 3.5 points, scoring only two points. I thought Hauser going Under 3.5 points would open the door to a bet in Game 3, but that wasn't the case as he opened at 5.5. After back-to-back Unders, this total is back to 3.5 (-115), and at these odds, I'm hitting the button.

Here's why I like this bet: we only need 13 minutes from Hauser to establish a healthy probability gap in the odds. He saw 13 minutes in Game 3, a game in which the Celtics were losing, staged a comeback, and eventually stole the game in the final minute. This game script isn't ideal for someone like Hauser, yet he still managed to see the amount of minutes we need to establish an edge.

If Monday's game is close, I think we have an edge on Hauser, but if the Pacers go 1-2-3 Cancun without Haliburton, our edge will only grow as Hauser should see elevated minutes in a blowout. If the Pacers are down by double digits, they'll also increase the pace and their defense will soften up, which will really help a player like Hauser.

He's projected to score 5.3 points on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 points at -193.

Sam Hauser prop: Over 3.5 points (-115 at bet365)

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Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon immediately turned his attention to the NBA when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 14 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve and, when possible, lets the numbers do the talking.

Jon hosts the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics, which airs on the Covers YouTube channel, and he is also a regular guest on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne.

Jon keeps his eye on the NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to always shop around for the best price for whichever bet he is looking to place. If there are NBA games on for that current day, you can guarantee that Jon woke up way too early, has already had some caffeine, and is ready to begin placing bets on NBA player props.

His favorite sportsbooks are Pinnacle, Caesars, and Betano, with the first two being where he places the majority of his bets, while Betano sneaks into the top three because of their creative futures markets for the NBA.

Before joining Covers in December 2023, Jon worked as a sports betting analyst at Sportsbook Review. He also holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor, where he studied Human Kinetics with a focus on Sports Studies.

Jon's top piece of advice for sports bettors: "Any outcome is possible in sports betting; you're just hunting for one that is more probable than the sportsbooks have it priced."

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