In any other circumstance, the Sacramento Kings would be favored at home against the Los Angeles Clippers. Sacramento looks the part for a second season in a row, even if it is only sixth at the moment in the competitive Western Conference.
The Clippers are short favorites tonight due to the Kings being on the second night of a back-to-back, as last night featured a dramatic, come-from-behind win over the Warriors. Is that justification enough to favor Los Angeles?
We’ll break it all down in our free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Kings on November 29.
Clippers vs Kings odds
Clippers vs Kings predictions
Even before the Sacramento Kings had completed that double-digit comeback win last night, this line opened with the Los Angeles Clippers favored by 1.5 points.
Clearly, favoring Los Angeles was the bookmakers’ baking in that the Kings would be fatigued regardless.
However, it wasn't merely a victory; it was a triumph against Sacramento's fiercest rival. Golden State had previously secured its last three victories beneath the beam, including the last two on the road in last year's first round of the playoffs. The Warriors dominated that Game 7 with a 20-point lead and notched another win by eight points earlier this season.
The Kings had some demons to vanquish.
And it was not just any win. It was a massive comeback to clinch Group C in the In-Season Tournament and thus host a quarterfinal game next week.
Not to make too much of the In-Season Tournament, but to franchises without a history of success — think Sacramento, Indiana, and New Orleans — those wins matter, both literally and figuratively. Learning how to win in pressurized moments is a skill young teams need to develop, and the Kings proved their progress in that regard last night.
But at what cost?
De’Aaron Fox played 40 minutes, while Domantas Sabonis logged 37. And, frankly, neither played well. Fox went 9-of-17 from the free-throw line and 9-of-20 from the field, and Sabonis scored just nine points last night.
Yet, the Kings won.
Ultimately, sportsbooks have gotten pretty accurate with their adjustments for the second night of back-to-backs. Sacramento went 7-7 against the spread last year. But there is little, if any, precedent for adjusting for a needed win in the in-season tournament last night, let alone a win against the Warriors in particular.
While the Clippers have very much struggled since acquiring James Harden, tonight presents a ripe opportunity to get a win, entirely thanks to the schedule.
My best bet: Clippers -1.5 (-110 at BetVictor)
Clippers vs Kings same-game parlay
Clippers -2
Under 231
Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 points
If the logic here is that the Kings are wiped, then that should show up in the total as well. They rank No. 5 in the NBA with 101.37 possessions per game thus far, while the Clippers come in 24th with just 98.98. That difference may seem slim, but that kind of edge sticks out when examining an O/U.
Los Angeles will be happy to plod tonight, and Sacramento may need to simply out of exhaustion. Anyone who watched the end of last night’s tilt is expecting the Kings to be sluggish tonight.
And a slow game plays right into Kawhi Leonard’s offensive bag. Betting on Leonard's Over here is betting on him to stop the Clippers’ slide. This is his team, as flawed as it is.
The Clippers sit No. 11 in the West, two games below .500. They may have won four of their last six, but Monday’s 113-104 loss to Denver’s reserves was another humbling moment, and one Leonard does not seem likely to tolerate any longer.
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Clippers vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
With neither the spread nor the total wavering notably, this will be an interesting case study to remember for next year's In-Season Tournament. Did bookmakers properly react to that climactic win?
One could argue they overreacted, simply out of precaution, and if taking that contrarian stance, it is only appropriate to point out that Sacramento is 3-0 this season as a short underdog, winning all three games outright. Grow the spread to +4.5, and that rises to 4-0 both ATS and outright.
Of course, none of those games were on the second night of a back-to-back. The Kings are 0-1 when facing that spot this year, losing by 36 points at New Orleans last week despite being two-point favorites.
Clippers vs Kings betting trend to know
11 of Los Angeles’s 16 games this season have gone Under the total. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Kings.
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Clippers vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 29, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
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