In what should have been an exciting two-game series between a young NBA star and a quartet of future Hall of Famers, the season hasn’t gone so swimmingly for either the San Antonio Spurs or the Los Angeles Clippers.
Despite being 5-7 and sitting 11th in the West, LA is coming off a 25-point win over the Spurs, and NBA odds have them as nine-point road favorites. Can Kawhi Leonard & Co. continue to give Victor Wembanyama issues tonight?
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks for Clippers vs. Spurs on Wednesday, November 22.
Clippers vs Spurs odds
Clippers vs Spurs predictions
While Kawhi Leonard isn’t what he used to be, he’s still a threat to go off every night, especially against this 3-11 San Antonio Spurs team. With a line of 23.5 points at -110, there’s more value in taking the Over on Leonard's made threes against a defense that struggles to stop them.
It may seem like a big ask to have the five-time All-Star hit three threes against San Antonio, but it’s not as if he’s not been on fire from behind the arc this season. Leonard is connecting on 42.3% of his threes and averaging 2.5 per game on 5.9 attempts.
He’s hit at least three in five of 12 games this season (41.6%) and has gone 5 of 13 from deep against the Spurs in their first two matchups. He’s taking slightly more threes per game, 6.5, against San Antonio because of their issues defending the 3-point line.
The Spurs have the second-highest 3-point percentage allowed in the NBA this season (39.6%) after allowing the highest percentage in the league last season ( 39.1%). In the current Clippers lineup, Leonard is asked to play the four, a position the Spurs are allowing the fifth-highest amount of threes to in the league at 2.97 per game.
San Antonio’s defense has been arguably the worst in the NBA, allowing 124.1 points per game, and has a 120.4 defensive rating (27th). The Spurs are allowing more points per game this season and have a worse defensive rating than last year’s team that went 22-60.
On the bright side of that unwatchable campaign, they ended up with Victor Wembanyama, who will likely be dealing with Leonard for much of the game. While the top pick in the NBA Draft has been stellar given the circumstances, starting power forwards haven’t been afraid to step back and pull up against him.
With his length always a threat, Wembanyama is averaging 2.6 blocks per game, the easier answer seems to be trying to stretch the floor against him. Starting power forwards are attempting over five threes per game against the Spurs and given Leonard’s propensity for hitting them, there should be plenty of opportunity for him to get Over 2.5.
The Clippers seem to be jelling more, too, which can only help this offense get Leonard his looks. After their 124-99 victory on Monday, Leonard even commented on the improvements.
"That's been a big issue for us, turning over the ball," Leonard said. "We got to be detailed, rebound the basketball, having great location, playing our defense. Offense will come once everybody gets comfortable."
My best bet: Kawhi Leonard Over 2.5 made threes (+140 at bet365)
Clippers vs Spurs same-game parlay
Kawhi Leonard Over 2.5 made threes
Victor Wembanyama Under 29.5 pts+reb+ast
Ivica Zubac Over 18.5 pts+reb
As good as Wembanyama has been as a rookie — averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists — he has struggled against the Clippers. In two outings against LA, he’s shooting just 8 of 22 from the field, and averaging only 10 points per game.
His rebounding numbers have been down, too, with just eight in two games to go with six assists in that span. He’s averaging only 17 points+assists+rebounds when playing the Clippers, in part due to the defense of Leonard and Ivica Zubac.
The Clippers are eighth in the league with 109.7 points allowed per game, and sixth in defensive rating. Leonard and Zubac — along with Paul George — have led the charge sitting 14th and 32nd, respectively, in defensive win shares this season.
The frontcourt duo has been even better against the Spurs and has been a big reason LA has been able to shut Wemby down through two games. This season, Leonard has a 93.1 defensive rating against the Spurs, and Zubac has been just as dominant with an 89.7 rating.
Zubac has also caused trouble on the defensive end for the Spurs, averaging 12 points and 9.5 rebounds in two games against them. With the 13th most paint touches per game this season, Zubac can take advantage of a Spurs defense that’s allowed the eighth most paint points per game this year.
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Clippers vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
The Clippers opened as 9.5-point road favorites with most books shifting down a point to -8.5.
LA has struggled to cover, going 5-7 against the spread, but has covered both nine and 9.5-point spreads against the Spurs this year. The Spurs are even worse ATS, going 4-10 this season, which gives them the lowest percentage for covering in the league at 28.6%.
The total opened between 228.5 and 231.5 depending on the book with most coming up to between 230.5 and 231.5. While the Clippers are only 4-7-1 to the Over and hit the Under in both their previous games against San Antonio, the Spurs are 11-3 to the Over, second best in the NBA.
Clippers vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Clippers have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 away games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Spurs.
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Clippers vs Spurs game info
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 22, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports SoCal, Bally Sports Southwest-San Antonio |
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