The Boston Celtics served up a dud in their first close-out opportunity against the Dallas Mavericks, but Jaylen Brown & Co. have another chance to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy tonight in front of their home fans.
With Luka Doncic finding an extra gear in Game 4, it’s going to take all of the Celtics’ steady two-way play to finish the job, and Jaylen Brown's offensive skill set and his dogged defense makes for a great topic in my NBA picks for the Mavs vs. Celtics on June 17.
Jaylen Brown prop picks for June 17
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jaylen Brown best bet
Over 3.5 assists (-125)
Jaylen Brown's points prop has inched up over the course of the series, and it feels like a stay away at 24.5 as Boston is so adept at sharing the scoring load. So I’m looking to the other elements of his game instead.
There was a time when Brown’s ball-handling — on isolation plays or in the pick-and-roll — was considered an exploitable weakness. That criticism had some merit, particularly when looking at his assist-to-turnover rate, and it went under the microscope in the 2022 NBA Finals.
But hard work has paid off for Brown in the 2024 Finals, and the Boston Celtics are leaning on his relentless forays into the paint as a path to great offense. Time and again, he's made good reads and found open shooters, cementing himself in the Finals MVP conversation.
That leads me to the Over on his assists prop. I’m throwing out Game 4, where the Celtics waved the white flag early in an ugly blowout, and choosing to view his playmaking in the prior two games as a better reflection of what we can expect from Brown in Game 5.
He had a combined 15 dimes in Games 2 and 3, with Boston repeatedly trusting him to initiate the offense. I see a similar game plan here and an aggressive mindset from Brown.
This is no time to be tentative and his passing will be a key factor, especially if he can attack Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the defensive end and get the Dallas defense scrambling.
Surrounded by capable 3-point shooters — regardless of whether Kristaps Porzingis features tonight — the payoff should be there when Brown shares the rock, and I like his chances of finishing with four or more assists.
Prop: Over 3.5 assists (-125 at FanDuel)
Jaylen Brown same-game parlay
Over 3.5 assists
Under 2.5 threes
Over 0.5 blocks
As well as Brown has played in this series, his 3-point shooting has been dry with him opting to cut to the rim. He’s just 6-for-25 from downtown through four games (24%), and he hasn’t made more than two triples in a single game yet.
Brown’s attempts have been wildly up and down too. He’s taken five or fewer shots from deep in seven of his last 11 outings, but he’s also had nine or more attempts twice.
Brown’s defensive efforts have been focused on slowing Luka, but he’s always a threat as a rim protector too. He swatted three shots in Game 1, and he’s had at least one block in six of his last nine contests.
With Irving attacking for layups and Dallas trying to get its centers more involved offensively, I see opportunities for Brown to make a big play and cash this Over.
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