The best and worst part of the NBA schedule is the same: there’s always another game soon. No matter how well you’re playing or how poorly, either can be upended in an instant, and a season’s fortunes changed for good or ill.
The Milwaukee Bucks best hope for the former, because they turned in a dismal effort against the lowly Washington Wizards last night. It was the kind of loss that can’t make you feel great about their NBA odds of ultimately capturing the Larry O’Brien this June.
The Memphis Grizzlies are a similar kind of challenge, in that it would be easy for Milwaukee to take them lightly given their 25-50 record. But this same Memphis team stunned it in the last game before the All-Star break.
My NBA picks for the Grizzlies vs. Bucks on Wednesday, April 3 outline the key differences between today’s game and Milwaukee’s loss to Washington.
Grizzlies vs Bucks predictions
My best bet: Bucks -13 (-110 at bet365)
To call last night’s effort by the Milwaukee Bucks disappointing would be a serious understatement. Though missing the talents of Damian Lillard, one would think there is no way Milwaukee could lose to the likes of the Washington Wizards.
Indeed, it was the worst loss under Doc Rivers since the last time Milwaukee played Wednesday’s opponent, the Memphis Grizzlies, just before the All-Star break.
But while it would be easy to be a prisoner to the moment and expect the Bucks to follow up last night with another subpar performance, I am of the mind they bounce back against Memphis.
The Wizards, for all their ineptitude, are good at one thing: pushing the pace in transition. Per Cleaning the Glass, Washington has the second-highest frequency of transition plays of any NBA team. Transition defense has been an issue for the Bucks all season long and is probably the single biggest reason Adrian Griffin was fired. While it’s improved under Doc Rivers, that improvement was not evident last night.
Milwaukee didn’t take Washington seriously, which manifested as it not getting back and set to play defense. Many times, the Wizards scored just a handful of seconds after the Bucks did.
In contrast to the Wiz, the Grizzlies are one of the slowest teams in the NBA. Without Ja Morant, they're not overly athletic and they certainly don’t emphasize running the ball. They add the fewest points per 100 possessions from transition scoring of any team in the NBA.
This will be a half-court game, and as a result the Bucks should dominate it.
The Grizz are in a grueling part of their schedule — having played six of their last seven games on the road — and the two games they won in that span came against the Pistons and Spurs. Their losses in that stretch totaled a combined -98, meaning their average margin of defeat in those five games was just under 20 points per game.
In other words, outside of games against the worst teams in the NBA, the Grizzlies are consistently getting blown out, even by merely competent teams.
The Bucks clear that bar and then some. They’ve had some baffling performances on the road, but they’ve been a dominant home team all season long. With the added motivation that comes from last night’s letdown and their previous loss to Memphis, I expect Milwaukee to throttle the Grizz tonight.
Grizzlies vs Bucks same-game parlay
Bucks -13
Over 221
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ points
As the Bucks played last night and won’t release an injury report until much closer to tip time, I would be pretty surprised if Lillard played tonight. Groin injuries are liable for reaggravation and sitting him a single game due to that injury only for him to play the next night would be unusual.
As such I expect Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be in command of the offense again on Wednesday, soaking up superstar usage and as a result scoring a lot of points. Due to the potential for an early blowout, I like the value of Giannis' alt prop of 30 points rather than the traditional prop at 33.5.
I also like the Over at 221. This line came in as high as 224.5 and has been bet down 3.5 points since then, and in general, I like to bet against movement that significant.
While the Bucks and Grizz may be perceived as teams that cash a lot of Unders, Milwaukee at home and Memphis on the road produce two of the highest rates of Overs in the NBA this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Grizzlies vs Bucks odds and trends
Grizzlies vs Bucks live odds
Grizzlies vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +13 | Milwaukee -13
- Moneyline: Memphis +643 | Milwaukee -872
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Grizzlies vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks opened as -13.5 point favorites against Memphis, with some oddsmakers now offering it at -13
- The Bucks are 10-8 ATS with a rest disadvantage
- The total opened at 224.5 and has since fallen as low as 220.5
- The Over is 21-15 in Bucks home games and 23-16 in Grizzlies away games
Grizzlies vs Bucks trend
The Over is 23-16 in Grizzlies road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Bucks.
Grizzlies vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WMLW The M, Bally Sports SE-MEM |
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