Grizzlies vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Thompson Attacks off the Bench

The final score was another double-digit defeat, but the Memphis Grizzlies looked more dangerous on Monday than they have in weeks. 

While they fell to the Kings in overtime, the return of Desmond Bane gave the Grizzlies an offensive punch on the perimeter they have sorely missed. They’ll need it as they visit the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, March 20. The Grizzlies are heavy NBA odds underdogs here, and while the Warriors are trying to get into better play-in positioning, the Grizzlies would love nothing more than to play spoiler.

My NBA picks for Grizzlies vs. Warriors take stock of how Klay Thompson has performed since moving into a bench role for Golden State.

Grizzlies vs Warriors odds

Grizzlies vs Warriors predictions

It is often said that a player's development in the NBA is not linear. What’s less often noted is that an NBA player’s decline is not linear. 

Klay Thompson is one of the five best shooters ever, but Father Time is undefeated. After an uneven 2022-23, many hoped a healthy and normal offseason would let him hit the ground running and return to form. Instead, Klay had his worst start ever, averaging career-lows in shooting efficiency and production.

He’s spent much of the season fighting his decline in the worst ways. His shot selection became even more ambitious than it had been when he was an elite shooter. His poor play infected his mood and his effort. It was difficult to watch at times.

When Steve Kerr announced that Klay would be moving to the bench for the first time since his rookie season, it felt both shocking and like an inevitability finally coming due.

But instead of it marking the end of Thompson, it has marked his rebirth. Klay’s stats across the board are night-and-day since he moved into a bench role, and he’s frequently closing games again despite not starting them.

In 11 games off the bench, Klay is averaging 20.1 points on 45.3% 3-point shooting on 9.6 attempts per game. He is getting them up at as high a volume as ever, but he’s returned to his elite shooting form.

With improved shooting come harder closeouts and easier paths to scoring inside. Klay is averaging 20.8 points over his last six games and has had 17 or more in five of those six outings.

The Memphis Grizzlies allow more above the break 3s than all but three teams (Cleaning the Glass), so I like Klay to continue his strong efforts from the bench on Wednesday. 

My best bet: Klay Thompson Over 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Grizzlies vs Warriors same-game parlay

Klay Thompson Over 16.5 points

Over 219

Desmond Bane Over 23.5 points

+400 at DraftKings

This total feels low, even with the two points of movement since opening. The Golden State Warriors just managed to drop 112 points against the Knicks, who had held five straight opponents below 100. 

The Warriors have lots of perimeter weapons that won’t be easy for Memphis to match up with. Chris Paul’s return and the emergence of Trayce Jackson-Davis gives another dimension to their offense and a stabilizing bench force when Stephen Curry has to sit.

I also think the Grizzlies offense will see a boost from the return of Desmond Bane. 

Bane’s shooting is an element that nobody else on the Grizzlies provides. He’s one of their best available playmakers and can get easier shots for Jaren Jackson Jr. inside. He’s looked spry in his two games back and was averaging 24.4 points before his injury.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grizzlies vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Warriors opened as -10.5 point favorites. The line fell to -9.5 before rising as high as -11.
• The Warriors are just 10-18 against the spread when favored at home this season while Memphis is 20-14 ATS on the road.
• Oddsmakers are forecasting a low-scoring game, with the total opening at 217 before rising to 219.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
• The Over has cashed in 60% of Warriors home games (21-14) and 58.8% of Grizzlies road games (20-14) this year.

Grizzlies vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Over is 21-14 in Warriors home games this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.

Grizzlies vs Warriors game info

Grizzlies vs Warriors latest injuries

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