The Atlanta Hawks are on the ropes. After taking Game 4 in Atlanta, the Miami Heat will look to end the series in South Beach on Tuesday, April 26th.
Our latest NBA picks and predictions hone in on whether there is any hope for Trae Young and his team in Hawks vs. Heat Game 5, or if they’re destined to go the way of the dodo.
Hawks vs Heat odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Miami opened as a 7.5-point favorite and the line currently sits at -7 even. The total opened as high as 218 at some books and has dropped slightly to 217.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Hawks vs Heat predictions
Predictions made on 4/25/2022 at 8:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Hawks vs Heat game info
• Location: FTX Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southeast-Atlanta, Bally Sports Sun
Hawks vs Heat series odds
Hawks: +1,700
Heat: -8,000
Hawks vs Heat betting preview
Key injuries
Hawks: Clint Capela (Questionable), Lou Williams (Out).
Heat: Kyle Lowry (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 4-0 the last four meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
Hawks vs Heat picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This series is likely over. After a spirited home win by the Hawks in Game 3, the Miami Heat hit another gear in Game 4 and crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 110-86. Impressively, they did this all without the services of Kyle Lowry who missed the game (and who is out again tonight) due to a hamstring strain dating to Game 3. Prior to Game 4, Trae Young had only really been effective in the minutes where Kyle Lowry was off the floor, and it was fair to wonder if losing his presence both as an on-ball deterrent and an all-world defensive communicator would help Young spring loose. But it was not to be.
Instead, Trae Young was hounded for 48 minutes by the likes of Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin, limiting him to only 3-11 from the field, 9 points, and 5 turnovers. Whenever Trae called for a screen, he was met with a no less appealing prospect of trying to beat Bam Adebayo or PJ Tucker on a switch. He was limited to one shot inside the arc during the entire game and just one free throw attempt.
The Heat also made Trae work on defense, instead of letting him hide on Tucker as he’d managed in Game 3, they used Tucker's size and strength advantage to attack Trae and wear him down. They hunted him mercilessly in action after action throughout the game.
The rest of the Hawks didn’t muster much better, with Bogdan Bogdanovic — previously the Hawks’ standout player during the series — stalling out with 4 points on 6 shots.
Atlanta shot 42 threes in Game 4, which accounted for 52% of their total shot attempts for the game. This wasn’t the reflection of some grand design on offense either, the Hawks simply could not break the Heat’s perimeter defense whatsoever. Just 21% of their shots came at the rim, 16th percentile among all playoff games so far, per Cleaning the Glass.
That also lead to a ghastly 14.7% free throw rate and one of the lowest-frequency transition attacks of the entire first round. The Heat also badly beat Atlanta on the boards to the tune of a 37.0% offensive rebounding rate despite the return of Hawks center Clint Capela,
It was a thorough thrashing and one unlikely to reverse course now that the Heat defense seems to have contained Trae Young. When a heliocentric offense like Atlanta’s can be solved to this degree, it leaves little hope that the Hawks can cover in Game 5.
Prediction: Heat -7 (-110 bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has cashed in all four contests in this series so far. And even though the lines have been falling, there’s good reason to think that the movement downward has still been too conservative. The Hawks have failed to eclipse 100 points in two out of the four contests so far, and the previous game hit the Under by 26 points. It really does feel like the Heat’s personnel and scheme have throttled Young’s ability to get middle and do damage inside the arc, and the Hawks’ spirit may well be broken after Game 4.
The Heat offense has looked great by contrast, but still loses its transition attack without Kyle Lowry, which means fewer, longer possessions for Miami. Half-court offense remains an open question for this Heat team. If Jimmy Butler doesn’t choose to assert himself, it’s not often clear where Miami’s scoring will come from. Bam Adebayo has done an admirable job on defense this series but, despite a size or speed mismatch over his defender in every game, he’s averaging just 10.5 points.
Prediction: Under 217.5 (-110 bet365)
Best bet
Young has hit his Under in all four games in this series, and it seems to only be getting harder for him as the Heat find further ways to tire him out over the course of 48 minutes. I don’t think Young will have as poor a showing as Game 4, but a 25.5-point line seems a bit divorced from reality, given that he’s averaging 16.5 points for the series. I like this prop better than any other bet on the board.
Pick: Trae Young Under 25.5 points (-105 Caesars)
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