Two teams battling for the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference will face off for the second time this week as the Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night.
Atlanta won the Monday meeting between these teams, and I’m taking Trae Young & Co. to cover again in my Hawks vs. Heat predictions.
Let’s take a deeper look at tonight’s matchup in my free NBA picks for February 26.
Hawks vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Hawks +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat have struggled to put together consistent offense since trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors. That was apparent on Monday night, when an Atlanta Hawks defense that has been allowing 119 ppg held Miami to just 86.
The issue for the Heat has been figuring out how best to utilize its new lineup. Andrew Wiggins is scoring 18.4 ppg since joining Miami, but the team hasn’t gotten much out of Davion Mitchell (8.3 ppg). The Heat have been trying out a lineup that features rookie Kel’el Ware (8.6 ppg) playing alongside Bam Adebayo (16.9 ppg), but Ware hasn’t yet found a consistent rhythm on offense in his first year despite being an imposing body on defense.
It's tempting to look at this matchup and think that Monday’s game was a bit of a fluke. But Atlanta’s defense is better than its raw numbers look, ranking a respectable 15th in defensive rating this year. In fact, most of its defensive woes have come because the Hawks like to push the pace. On a possession-by-possession basis, they’re actually a solid defensive team, with Dyson Daniels averaging a league-high 3.1 steals per game.
And while Atlanta may look to push the pace, Miami is the exact opposite, playing with one of the slowest tempos in the NBA. The Heat have been held to less than 90 points in three of their last seven games, and are averaging just 100.6 ppg in that stretch.
That’s not enough to win games in the current NBA, and the Heat have lost six of those seven games as a result. And while Miami plays well on defense, it wasn’t enough on Monday. The Heat did an excellent job in making sure Trae Young (24.0 ppg) didn’t beat them singlehandedly, but he was still able to dish out 14 assists. As usual, Young was able to run the offense whether he scored or not.
Miami may get a small boost by playing at home, but the fundamentals of this game look the same as they did on Monday. The Hawks have won both games against the Heat this year, and I’m taking them to cover again in tonight’s matchup.
Hawks vs Heat same-game parlay
Hawks +2.5
Under 230.5
Tyler Herro Under 26.5 points
I like the Hawks to repeat the performance they put together against Miami on Monday, and that’s the basis of my same-game parlay. In addition to taking Atlanta to cover, I’m also backing the Under at 230.5 points.
The last game between these teams only saw them combine for 184 points, and even their first meeting in December finished just Under tonight’s total.
I’ll also take Tyler Herro to come in Under his scoring prop, which has been set at 26.5 points. Herro is having an excellent year, averaging 24.0 ppg, but that’s still well below tonight’s total.
The Hawks hounded him on Monday, holding the guard to just 11 points. While Atlanta might not be able to repeat that performance, I think they hold Herro Under.
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Hawks vs Heat odds
Hawks vs Heat live odds
Hawks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +1.5 | Miami -1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +105 | Miami -118
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Hawks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Hawks are 28-30 against the spread this season, while the Heat have gone 22-33-1 ATS on the year.
- Atlanta is 2-0 both straight-up and ATS against Miami this season.
- The Over has the edge with both teams, going 30-26 when the Heat play and 32-24-2 in Hawks games this season.
- Miami is playing to an average total of 220.4 ppg this season, with Atlanta coming into tonight’s game averaging a total of 235.7 ppg.
Hawks vs Heat trend
Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
How to watch Hawks vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN |
Hawks vs Heat latest injuries
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