The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a shot at the No.1 seed in the West, and they’re set to welcome back Karl-Anthony Towns tonight as they take on the Atlanta Hawks.
Despite a 116-107 setback against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, the Timberwolves are double-digit favorites in the latest NBA odds, while the Hawks are on a four-game skid, including a home loss to the Charlotte Hornets in midweek in Trae Young’s return.
With playoff seeding on the line, check out our latest NBA picks as I lay out my Hawks vs. Timberwolves predictions for this April 12 battle.
Hawks vs Timberwolves predictions
My best bet
Timberwolves -13.5 (-109 at BetRivers)
My analysis
As much as the Atlanta Hawks may still be clinging to hopes of surviving the play-in and springing postseason upsets, there’s some wishful thinking involved there — and I expect a motivated Minnesota Timberwolves team to expose that tonight.
The Timberwolves need a win to keep the pressure on the Nuggets in the race for the top spot in the West, and they’re 29-10 at Target Center this season.
Then there’s the Towns factor. All the signs point to Karl-Anthony Towns returning here, and that should add juice to a Timberwolves offense that’s relied heavily on Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid over the past few weeks.
Even if he’s under a minutes restriction, Towns is helping space the floor by shooting a career-high 42.3% from downtown this year. That paves the way for Minnesota to cover a large spread here — and Atlanta’s depleted rotation is another reason to lay the points. The Hawks will be without Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, plus Dejounte Murray is listed as questionable on the injury report.
The visitors’ best chance is likely to turn this into an end-to-end shootout, but the Timberwolves have long-armed perimeter stoppers to throw at Trae Young (and Murray), and the rejigged Atlanta bench had a disastrous night against the Hornets to derail a solid effort from the starters.
The Hawks have been an unreliable ATS team all year and they’re just 15-24 on the road. I’m predicting one-way traffic tonight, with the Timberwolves’ talent edge tipping the scales.
Hawks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Timberwolves -13.5
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 rebounds
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Rudy Gobert has made a compelling Defensive Player of the Year case this season, and I expect him to dominate the paint here. His rebounds prop jumps out to me, with Gobert pulling down at least 14 boards in five of his six outings in April.
While tonight's O/U of 12.5 is impacted by Towns’ likely return, Minnesota is sure to be cautious with KAT’s minutes, and I see Gobert cruising to the Over in a game where he’ll be guarding Clint Capela around the basket.
I’m also picking a full-throttle Edwards game on the heels of the Timberwolves’ disappointing second half against Denver — and that should show up all over the stat sheet. But I’m locked in on his assists prop, with Ant serving up 19 dimes across his last three games.
Towns’ shooting gives Edwards another outlet when he’s in playmaking mode, and he’s unlikely to meet much resistance from the Hawks’ perimeter defense, especially when Young is on the court.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Hawks vs Timberwolves odds
Hawks vs Timberwolves live odds
Hawks vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +13.5 | Minnesota -13.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta+550 | Minnesota -800
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5
Hawks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- At first glance, the 13.5-point line may feel like a big number, but Atlanta is just 28-52 ATS record this season.
- The Hawks are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, winning six of the past eight matchups outright, but these teams are on very different trajectories this year.
- Though Minnesota’s stingy defense can’t be underestimated, the trends point to the Over, which is 8-2 in the Hawks’ past 10 games. It’s also been a winner in the Timberwolves’ last three contests.
- The Over is 45-35 for Atlanta this season, and the Hawks outlasted the Timberwolves in a 127-113 shootout back in October, but there’s potential for the visitors’ offense to stall if Murray sits out.
Hawks vs Timberwolves trend
The Hawks have hit the team total Over in 51 of their last 84 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Timberwolves.
Hawks vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, PeachtreeTV |
Hawks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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