As the Jimmy Butler soap opera takes another turn with a second suspension, the Miami Heat trudge on without him — and they’ll have their hands full tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Miami has dropped four of its last five contests, and my Heat vs Bucks predictions side with an in-form Milwaukee team.
My NBA picks dive into this Thursday, January 23 clash for the top storylines and betting angles, including a focus on two sweet-shooting guards.
Heat vs Bucks prediction
My best bet
Bucks -7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The mood around these teams couldn’t be more different — the Milwaukee Bucks are riding another hot streak while the Miami Heat look defeated and drained by the Jimmy Butler saga.
As good a head coach as Erik Spoelstra is, it’s hard to see the Heat being competitive here. They were beaten at home by the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, and the awkwardness around Butler hangs over the team.
Now they have to deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. That duo combined for 59 points against the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, two days after pouring in 61 points to sink the Toronto Raptors. A repeat performance here puts Milwaukee on the path to another big total.
It’s been a rollercoaster year for the Bucks, but the arrow is pointing up again. They’re 7-1 in their last eight, and I’m buying into the recent formbook, despite a friendly schedule. Plus, they’ve got the rest edge here after their clash in New Orleans was postponed last night.
The Heat are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games and would be looking over their shoulder if the bottom of the East wasn’t such a mess. With their season on the ropes, five of their last six losses have come by at least nine points.
Even with Tyler Herro expected to return tonight, Miami feels overmatched, and I’m laying the points with a Milwaukee team that’s won four in a row and sits at 15-7 at Fiserv Forum this year.
Heat vs Bucks same-game parlay
Bucks -7
Damian Lillard Over 23.5 points
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 threes
Lillard has been putting up good numbers during the Bucks’ recent surge, and I’m taking the Over on his points prop here. He’s scored at least 25 points in six of his last eight games to spark Milwaukee’s winning run — and the 3-ball has been a big part of the story. He’s up to 46% from downtown in January, including 16-for-29 shooting across his past four.
There’s a little extra spice against a Heat team that’s courted Dame over the years, and he dropped 37 points in Miami in November. I see him adding to the visitors’ misery tonight and attacking Herro and Duncan Robinson on the perimeter.
Speaking of Robinson, he’s been on fire lately, and I’m taking the Over on 2.5 threes here for the Heat sharpshooter. The majority of his shots come from beyond the arc, and he’s up to 39% on triples this season.
Across his last three games, Robinson has ratcheted it up another notch, shooting 13-for-23 from downtown, and the visitors will need his offense tonight to fill the scoring void left by Butler.
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Heat vs Bucks odds
Heat vs Bucks live odds
Heat vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Miami +7 (-110) | Milwaukee -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +230 | Milwaukee -280
- Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami is 9-12 on the road this season and enters as a clear underdog against a Bucks team that’s covered the 1H spread in 19 of their last 29 home games.
- Milwaukee has won three of the last four matchups between these teams, including a 106-103 victory earlier this season without Giannis in the line-up.
- The Over is 24-18 for the Heat, though the 4Q Under is 28-15 in their past 43 road contests.
- The Bucks have served up six straight Overs, and they’ve scored 122 points or more in each of their last four games.
Heat vs Bucks trend
Look for plenty of offense here — the Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.
How to watch Heat vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin |
| Date | Thursday, 1-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, Max |
Heat vs Bucks latest injuries
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