The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks sit in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and both desperately need a win tonight as they attempt to pull themselves out of the Play-In Tournament and into a Top-6 seed.
Between Atlanta’s non-existent defense and Miami’s offense having several reliable scorers, I expect Trae Young and Tyler Herro to go toe-to-toe in a high-scoring shootout in my Heat vs. Hawks predictions and NBA picks for Monday, February 24.
Heat vs Hawks prediction
My best bet
Over 228 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks play very different styles of basketball, but both have consistently been better Over bets than Under bets this season. The teams are a combined 63-49 (56.2%) betting the Over, and even with its defense-first mentality, Miami has cleared the total in three straight.
That’s due in part to the offense having two stars to lean on in Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, and thanks to the addition of Andrew Wiggins giving the team a consistent third threat. Those three have the Heat putting up 115.3 PPG over their last three games, and they should be able to expose a flimsy Hawks defense.
Atlanta is 28th in points allowed per game (119.6) and is giving up the second-highest field-goal percentage in the NBA (48.3%) on top of allowing the fifth-most 3-pointers per game (14.1). That poor perimeter defense could be a problem against a Heat team that’s 11th in made threes per game (13.9), and has multiple reliable shooters in Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Davion Mitchell.
The Hawks defense has been getting absolutely trounced as of late, too. In February, Quin Snyder’s team is giving up 125.1 PPG and a 50.7% field goal percentage. What’s kept them in games — and in the playoff race — has been an offense putting up 126.1 PPG this month.
Led by Trae Young, the Hawks are seventh in the league in PPG (117.0) and their high-speed attack lends to hitting Overs. Atlanta is second in pace rating (103.4) and fourth in field-goal attempts per game (92.1).
So while the Heat have a solid defense, it could be susceptible to scoring with the way Atlanta wants to play. Plus, Miami is allowing the ninth-most threes per game (13.8) and sits in the back half of the league in 2-point percentage allowed (54%).
With Young leading the charge, both as a shooter and passer, the Hawks are capable of putting enough pressure on this Miami defense to hit the Over for the seventh time in 11 games.
Heat vs Hawks same-game parlay
Over 228.5
Trae Young Over 10.5 assists
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 points
Only two players in the NBA are averaging double-digit assists this season. One is three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the other is Young, and the former Oklahoma star is putting up the most APG in the NBA (11.4) with 1.2 more per night than Jokic.
Against the Heat, he should have no trouble going Over 10.5 for the 29th time this season with Miami allowing the fifth-most APG to point guards (9.43). On the flip side, Adebayo can take advantage of a Hawks defense that can’t seem to stop big men.
Atlanta is allowing the third-most PPG in the league to power forwards (24.28) and Adebayo is averaging 23 PPG in his last four outings. The Kentucky product has gone Over 19.5 points in 18 games this season.
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Heat vs Hawks odds
Heat vs Hawks live odds
Heat vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Miami -1 (-110) | Atlanta +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami -115 | Atlanta -105
- Over/Under: Over 226 (-110) | Under 226 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat opened as a 1-point road favorite with the line at most books moving to Miami -1.5.
- The Heat are among the worst teams ATS this season at 22-32-1, but the the Hawks aren’t much better at 27-30.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 226, but has steadily risen and is now as high as 228.5 at some books.
- Both Miami and Atlanta are in the top half of the league betting the Over this season with the Heat being 30-25 and the Hawks being 33-24.
Heat vs Hawks trend
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the game total Over in 46 of their last 73 games (+16.30 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hawks.
How to watch Heat vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, 2-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FD Sports Network-Sun, FD Sports Network-Southeast-ATL |
Heat vs Hawks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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