The Miami Heat face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action on Friday night. The Thunder have been one of the league's biggest surprises and have surged to the second-best record in the Western Conference while going 38-23 against the spread.
However, they shouldn't overlook a Miami squad that enters Paycom Center having won 11 of its last 15 games. NBA odds have the Thunder as 8.5-point home favorites, with the Over/Under at 223.5. Here are my best Heat vs. Thunder free NBA picks and predictions for March 7.
Heat vs Thunder odds
Heat vs Thunder predictions
On the surface, this looks like an easy play on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 24-6 straight up and 21-9 against the spread at home with an average scoring margin of +11.8 ppg. After all, the Miami Heat are missing starting guard Tyler Herro, haven't covered the spread in their last three games, and are playing on back-to-back nights after losing 114-108 to Dallas yesterday.
Miami actually shot the ball well without Herro last night, knocking down 17 of 38 shots from beyond the arc. However, a poor performance from the charity stripe (11-17) and an even worse effort on the glass (rebounding margin of -8) led to a defeat.
Expect positive regression from Miami in both of those areas against a Thunder squad that is 24th in the league in free-throw attempts allowed per game (23.6) while ranking second-last in rebounding rate (47.4%).
The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league to put money on this season, going 38-24 ATS. However, they are 8-9 ATS in their last 17 games so it appears that oddsmakers have finally caught on to how good they are.
Meanwhile, the Heat are 11-4 SU and ATS in their last 15 games. They've also played well without Herro this season, going 16-10 in his absence.
This is a Miami squad that does a good job of slowing down foes and relying on a stingy defense to keep things competitive. That's been especially true on the road, where the Heat allow the fewest points per game in the NBA (107.0) and have the third-best opponent field goal percentage (45.8%).
With the Heat 13-8 ATS when catching points on the road this season and going 11-5-1 ATS when playing at a rest disadvantage, take them with the points tonight.
My best bet: Heat +8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Heat vs Thunder same-game parlay
Heat +8.5
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 rebounds
Jalen Williams Over 18.5 points
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Jimmy Butler is Miami's best player and he's able to fill up the stat sheet. Herro might be known as a scorer, but he also contributes on the boards with 4.4 rebounds per game. With Miami also missing Kevin Love (6.2 rpg), there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Butler, especially against an up-tempo Thunder squad that struggles on the glass. With Butler pulling down 6+ rebounds in nine of his last 13 games, expect him to eclipse this number again tonight.
Miami has a tough defense, but the points total for Jalen Williams still looks a tad too low. Since the start of the new year, Williams is averaging 20.7 ppg, and he dropped 19 points while racking up a career-high 12 assists when these teams previously matched up in January. He has also scored at least 22 points in five of his last six games and with Butler likely defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams should have a more favorable matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread hit the board, with the Thunder at -8.5 and the Over/Under at 225.5. As of noon ET, the spread hasn't moved, but the total has ticked down to 224.
Despite failing to cover the spread in their last three games, the Heat are still 11-4 SU and ATS in their previous 15 games.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four contests. They're coming off a contest where they beat the Blazers 128-120 but failed to cover the hefty spread as 13.5-point road favorites. To be fair, that was their fourth consecutive game on the road, and they'll be happy to be back home for this contest.
These teams met earlier this season, with the Thunder winning 128-120 in Miami. While the Heat had Herro in that contest, they were missing Butler. They also allowed OKC to shoot a sizzling 69.8% from inside the arc, so expect regression from the Thunder there.
Heat vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Heat are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog going back to last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Thunder.
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Heat vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Friday, March 8, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KSBI OKC, Bally Sports Sun |
Heat vs Thunder latest injuries
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