The Miami Heat have endured a brutal week, suspending Jimmy Butler and losing three straight games including a double-overtime thriller against the Sacramento Kings on Monday.
As Miami looks to recover both physically and mentally after squandering a large lead in Sacramento, we look into their next matchup in my Heat vs. Warriors predictions.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Tuesday, January 7.
Heat vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Warriors -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Oddsmakers have set an incredibly low total for this one, and with good reason. Yes, both teams have struggled on the defensive end, but they’ve been arguably worse on the offensive side and have continued to play at an incredibly slow pace.
It’s going to be difficult to play the total at this number, but I do think there’s room to maneuver with the spread.
The Miami Heat are just 3-4 on the second night of a back-to-back this season to begin with, and this one promises to be their most challenging yet after blowing a 17-point lead on Monday and playing two overtimes against the Kings.
This team has posted an offensive rating under 100 points since losing Jimmy Butler, and despite coming away with a rather positive defensive performance on Monday much of that was due to the fact that Sacramento not only had tired legs on a back-to-back but played sloppy offense for 10 minutes in the extra sessions.
Miami’s mid-range defense comes in ranked 29th over the last two weeks which should aid a Warriors team which has taken a ton of shots from that zone to no avail in the last two weeks, and did allow 47% shooting from outside in the second half against the Kings. After allowing the Utah Jazz to shoot 41.3% from outside in its previous game, I’m not quite sure this middling 3-point defense will hold strong against a solid 3-point shooting team, either.
The Heat continue to be one of the worst teams in the league on the glass to boot, which should give the Golden State Warriors yet another unnecessary edge in this one, further tipping the scales in the favor of the home side.
It’s simply hard to see how Miami’s slumping defense and frontcourt will make an impact here, and its offense should continue to struggle given its inside focus has bared little fruit with the seventh-worst field goal percentage at the rim in the last 14 days, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Heat vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors -9.5
Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 7.5 rebounds
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 12.5 points
While the Miami Heat continue to look dreadful on the boards, it’s been defensive rebounding that has grown to be a particularly large issue. Opponents are corralling 12.7 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions over the last two weeks – up from 11.5 for the season – and that should put Trayce Jackson-Davis in the driver’s seat on Tuesday.
The young big man leads all Warriors regulars in offensive rebounding rate this season, and up until Sunday’s blowout loss to the Kings, where he played just 17 minutes, he was on a tear down low.
Jackson-Davis averaged 9.4 rebounds in an eight-game span prior to that performance, and as he continues to draw starts at center I think he should pile up rebounds rather quickly against a weak frontcourt.
I’ll also back Jaime Jaquez, Jr. to score some points here, considering he’s seemed to emerge as Erik Spoelstra’s choice to fill the void left by Jimmy Butler. His playing time has been steady in the last two games, and while he’s struggled to score with consistency this season should have the chance to reach this modest number given Golden State’s ranked dead last in defending the rim and the mid-range over the last two weeks.
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Heat vs Warriors odds
Heat vs Warriors live odds
Heat vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Miami +7 | Golden State -7
- Moneyline: Miami +325 | Golden State -425
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line actually crept closer to the Heat on Monday evening before the influence of a grueling double-overtime game sent it flying the other way.
- The Warriors make up 50% of the tickets but 80% of the money wagered on the spread.
- The Under seemed to be the clear choice for bettors on the total before Monday’s marathon game, but has fallen even further by two additional points on Tuesday.
- The Under has accounted for 55% of the total handle despite commanding just 31% of the bets.
Heat vs Warriors trend
The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+18.55 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Warriors.
How to watch Heat vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, FanDuel Sports Network - Sun |
Heat vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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