After a hard-fought loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Denver Nuggets will turn around on the second night of a back-to-back to face a short-handed Utah Jazz team.
Down a player of their own with Jamal Murray in concussion protocol, can Denver pick itself up on Saturday to get back to .500?
Let’s dig into some NBA player props for Jazz vs. Nuggets with free NBA picks on Saturday, November 2.
Jazz vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Under 222 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Without Jamaal Murray for the second half on Friday, the Denver Nuggets leaned on the defense of Russell Westbrook and some timely offensive contributions from newly-appointed starter Christian Braun to put a real scare into the Timberwolves.
Minnesota’s elite defense fumbled away a 16-point lead, watching as the Nuggets scored at will and out-worked its physical frontcourt on the glass without many rebounds from Nikola Jokic. Denver now sits 15th in rebounding rate through five games, two spots behind the Utah Jazz, but we can expect the battle on the glass to be one to watch here, considering these teams were both inside the top five a year ago, with Utah finishing third and Denver fifth.
The Jazz will play this one without Taylor Hendricks and Lauri Markkanen at forward, but they’ll still have one of the league’s most feared men on the boards in Walker Kessler to do the heavy lifting, and rookie Kyle Filipowski has also looked good in place of Markkanen despite the team’s 0-5 record.
This game should come down to shooting, with a close battle on the boards, meaning few offensive rebounds for both sides. Utah has ranked first in the league when it comes to limiting looks at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass, which should force Denver’s guards into action — something that’s rarely been the case as it’s sat in the top five of shot frequency at the rim.
Both of these defenses have been allowing the bulk of looks either from the mid-range or from 3, and while Utah has really struggled to score from every shooting zone, it’s been at its strongest in the mid-range.
The Nuggets’ perimeter defense faltered against Minnesota, allowing over 43% shooting from deep, with the injury to Murray throwing a wrench into their plans. It really was Minnesota’s complimentary players doing the scoring, though, as the Nuggets threw double teams on Anthony Edwards all night long and forced other players to beat them.
Filipowski and Brice Sensabaugh have been great in a limited sample, but without Markkanen, this team won’t stand much of a chance of keeping pace in shooting the ball against a pretty solid Nuggets defense. With Utah stealing away rebounds and benefiting from a weakened Nuggets offense due to fatigue and the injury to Murray, this one should be very low-scoring.
Jazz vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Under 222
Kyle Filipowski Over 9.5 points
Walker Kessler Over 9.5 rebounds
While the Nuggets should hold off the Jazz shooters here, considering their top option — shooting over 45% from deep in the early going — is out, I do like Markkanen’s replacement to enjoy a nice night.
Denver’s perimeter defense certainly didn’t look elite on Friday, and Filipowski should be relied upon for scoring once again here for Utah. He’s played around 22 minutes per game over the last two with Markkanen out, scoring 12 points in each and going a combined 4-for-9 from 3.
Meanwhile, Jokic was surprisingly ineffective on the glass against Minnesota, and Kessler has been leading the charge with a bit more volume this year. The young Jazz center has racked up double-digit rebounds in three of his last five games, abd I expect him to play plenty as the Jazz look to neutralize Jokic’s offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jazz vs Nuggets odds
Jazz vs Nuggets live odds
Jazz vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Utah +9.5 (-110) | Denver -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah (+375) | Denver (-500)
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 (-105) | Under 217.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Jazz vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line flew in the Nuggets’ favor, briefly hitting 11 points before settling back down a bit at the current number of 10.5.
- The total quickly jumped to 218 and then moved sharply to 220 when it looked as if Murray would miss this one. It’s only risen from that mark.
Jazz vs Nuggets trend
Denver has hit the game total Under in 45 of its last 78 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Jazz vs Nuggets
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KJZZ, Altitude |
Jazz vs Nuggets latest injuries
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