The New Orleans Pelicans have slipped to three straight home losses, but they’ll look to get back on track tonight against a Utah Jazz team that had struggled on the road until this week.
Despite Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram combining for 47 points, the Pelicans fell to a 116-115 overtime loss against the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday — and three defeats in their last four contests leaves them just outside the Top 6 in the West.
The Jazz have shown signs of life this month and arrive in New Orleans on a three-game winning run, including a 130-118 victory over San Antonio in the NBA odds. They’ve also had the upper hand against the Pelicans this season, winning both meetings.
Check out my free NBA picks and predictions for a closer look at Jazz vs. Pelicans on December 28.
Jazz vs Pelicans odds
Jazz vs Pelicans predictions
It’s been a tough year in Utah, with the Jazz falling short of last season’s high standards, but Lauri Markkanen continues to look like a key building block for the franchise.
It was always going to take some time for Markkanen to get back into a groove after missing a few weeks with a hamstring injury. Utah eased him back into the line-up and he’s seemed more like himself over the past week — just in time to face this bruising New Orleans frontcourt.
Markkanen’s scoring jumps off the screen in his past two games — 30 points against the Toronto Raptors and 31 points against the Spurs — but I’m leaning towards his rebounds prop instead tonight.
The big Finn has had at least nine rebounds in each of his last four outings, with double-digit boards in three of those contests.
Going up against Jonas Valanciunas and Zion Williamson in the paint is no one’s idea of an easy night, but I expect Markkanen to have enough opportunities to cash this prop. Though Lauri missed both games against the Pelicans this year, he had 11 or more boards in two of the three meetings last season.
This line feels low to me and I’m pouncing on these odds for the Over.
My best bet: Lauri Markannen Over 7.5 rebounds (-120)
Jazz vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Lauri Markannen Over 7.5 rebounds
Brandon Ingram Over 5.5 assists
Over 240.5 points
While Markkanen is the centerpiece for this SGP, I expect Brandon Ingram to put up a monster stat line as well tonight — and that includes a big playmaking role. Despite major minutes for CJ McCollum, Ingram has been a more pivotal factor for New Orleans regarding assist numbers.
He finished with seven dimes in the loss to the Grizzlies last time out, and he’s had at least six assists in 10 of his past 15 contests. I love the Over here.
I also see this being a high-scoring battle. The Jazz have scored 119 points or more in their three straight wins, and the Pelicans sit just outside the Top 10 in points per game (115.7).
Both teams can count on reliable bench scorers, from Trey Murphy III to Jordan Clarkson, and the Over has been a winning ticket in 18 of Utah’s 31 games this season.
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Jazz vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite dropping three games in a row at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans is still 9-7 at home this year and enters as an 8-point favorite tonight.
While the Jazz started 2-13 on the road, they’ve looked better on their travels this week, with Markkanen shining and Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, and Collin Sexton stepping up in key moments.
The Jazz have won the past five meetings between these teams and they’ve covered the spread in seven of the last 10 matchups against the Pelicans.
Both teams have nudged slightly towards the Over in recent weeks — it’s 6-3-1 in Utah’s last 10 games and 6-4 for New Orleans over that same stretch. The Jazz have cashed the team total Over in 31 of their last 49 contests, and they shot almost 50% from the field in Tuesday’s win against the Spurs.
The total is set around 240.5 here, which makes sense as both teams were banged up in the lower-scoring matchups in late November. Expect offensive fireworks tonight.
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Jazz vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Pelicans are strong starters and they’ve hit the first-half moneyline in 37 of their last 51 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Pelicans.
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Jazz vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, December 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports New Orleans, KJZZ |
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