Two of the top teams in the NBA face off at the FedExForum tonight when the Memphis Grizzlies host the New York Knicks.
Both teams have identical 38-20 records, and my Knicks vs. Grizzlies predictions expect home-court advantage to make the difference. Here are my best free NBA picks for this marquee matchup on Friday, February 28.
Knicks vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
At first glance, the Memphis Grizzlies are 3-3 straight up and 1-4-1 against the spread over their last six games. However, five of those contests came on the road, and they returned home to beat the Suns on Tuesday night.
The Grizzlies have also been a different beast at FedExForum, where they've gone 22-6 SU and 18-10 ATS, boasting an average scoring margin of +11.0 points per game — the third-best mark in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the New York Knicks haven't covered the spread in their last five games. Although the Knicks hold a scoring margin of +6.8 at home, that figure dips to +2.5 on the road.
New York has been awful in its own end, ranking 26th in the league in defensive rating since the start of the New Year. That makes the Knicks tough to trust against an up-tempo Memphis side that leads the NBA with 123.3 ppg.
The off-setting injuries to Josh Hart and Desmond Bane essentially cancel each other out, but All-Star center Karl-Anthony Towns (24.8 ppg, 13.5 rpg) is also questionable for the Knicks, and his absence would be huge. Mitchell Robinson could make his season debut after recovering from ankle surgery, but even if he plays, he's still a downgrade from Towns.
This is also a revenge spot for the Grizz, who lost by 37 points in New York a month ago. They were extremely sloppy in that contest with 26 turnovers, so expect them to bring their "A game" this time around.
Considering how well the Grizzlies play at home, I'd lean towards them — even if the Knicks were at full strength. With Towns questionable, I'll lay the four points.
Knicks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Grizzlies -3.5
Jaylen Wells Over 10.5 points
Mikal Bridges Over 0.5 steals
Jaylen Wells was a low-usage player for much of the season, but he's seen his role expand in recent weeks.
Wells has dropped 14+ points in four of his last five games and could get even more shots if Bane is out. It also helps that Wells has been red-hot from deep (nine threes in his last two games), and the Knicks rank last in the league in opponent 3-point percentage (38%).
Mikal Bridges has recorded a steal in 10 of his last 12 games, including that previous contest against Memphis. He should be able to swipe the ball at least once against a Grizzlies squad that allows the eighth-most steals per game (9.1).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Knicks vs Grizzlies odds
Knicks vs Grizzlies live odds
Knicks vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: New York +3 | Memphis -3
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Memphis -150
- Over/Under: Over 245.5 | Under 245.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on Memphis and the Under, shifting the spread from -3 to -4 and slimming the total to 244.5.
- The Knicks are coming off a 110-105 home win against the struggling 76ers and have gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Grizzlies are fresh off a 151-148 overtime win against Phoenix and are 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10.
- Memphis is 13-7 to the Over in its last 20 games, while New York is 9-4 O/U in its previous 13 contests.
Knicks vs Grizzlies trend
The Knicks are 2-9 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season, which may be due to the heavy workload that Tom Thibodeau gives his starters. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Knicks vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | MSG, FanDuel Sports Network SE-Memphis |
Knicks vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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