The New York Knicks and Miami Heat will both look to pick up a third straight win when they collide this evening at Madison Square Garden.
The Heat will likely be without Andrew Wiggins for a second straight game as he nurses an ankle injury, which should open up some more scoring chances for center Bam Adebayo.
I’ll explain why I’m banking on Adebayo to drop 20+ points in my Knicks vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 2.
Knicks vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 points (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat could be shorthanded for a second straight contest as Andrew Wiggins (ankle) is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game against the New York Knicks. That opens the door for Bam Adebayo, who is in the midst of his most efficient stretch of the season.
The Heat center shot over 55% from the field in February — about 7% above his season average — while averaging 15.6 field goal attempts per game, which was also his highest mark in any month this year.
Adebayo has recorded at least 20 points in eight of his last 13 contests and has a good shot at hitting the mark again vs. a Knicks team that’s been a little lax defensively.
New York has been hot with 12 wins in its last 16 games, but the Knicks have done so by outscoring their defensive woes. Since January 25, the Knicks have allowed 120.1 points against per game — the seventh-worst mark in the NBA over that span and more than seven above their season average (112.9).
Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns is also just getting over a knee injury which kept him out of a game last week, and that could afford Adebayo a little more space offensively.
Knicks vs Heat same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 points
Knicks moneyline
Over 223
While I believe Adebayo is due for some points, I still think the Knicks are the clear favorite in this game vs a lesser Heat team that will likely also be without one of its top scorers in Wiggins.
As mentioned, the Knicks are giving up plenty of points most nights, but they’re also scoring a ton — since January 25, New York ranks fifth with 120.9 ppg.
So while the Heat are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NBA (110.3 ppg, 24th), the Knicks’ loose D and high-flying offense should carry this one to Over 223 points.
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Knicks vs Heat odds
Knicks vs Heat live odds
Knicks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: New York -5.5 | Miami +5.5
- Moneyline: New York -203 | Miami +177
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Knicks opened as the road favorite at -5.5 but are just 1-5 ATS over their last six games. Nevertheless, New York is 13-4 straight up over its last 17 contests as the visitor.
- Tonight’s total opened at 224.5 points but slid as low as 222.5 by Saturday night. Oddsmakers seem to be undershooting totals for Miami in particular as the Heat have cashed the Over in five of their last six games and 10 of their last 11 at home.
- The Over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between New York and Miami.
Knicks vs Heat trend
The Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.
How to watch Knicks vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Sunday, 3-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | MSGSN, FDSN Sun |
Knicks vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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