Lakers vs Hornets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Taking the Sting Out of Charlotte

Both the Charlotte Hornets and the Los Angeles Lakers dreamed of greater things this season. The Hornets thought they might make the postseason. No, really, that was the franchise’s expectation entering the year. Injuries have not helped, but the Charlotte season has spiraled beyond any foreseen miseries, aggressively chasing the best NBA draft lottery odds.

The Lakers can still cling to grander aspirations, but this week may dictate how plausible they are. Not so much tonight — Los Angeles should cruise as a 12-point favorite in the NBA odds — but the front office will be looking to change the roster before Thursday’s trade deadline.

Could that distract the Lakers tonight? It should not matter, and it may just motivate them. Regardless, the continued tailspin of the Hornets’ season should direct the value in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Lakers vs the Hornets on Monday, February 5, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Lakers vs Hornets odds

Lakers vs Hornets predictions

We, as a gambling society, may have finally caught up to how bad the Charlotte Hornets defense is. Somehow, it is not the worst in the league these days, but it is exceptionally ambivalent. Since Jan. 1, the Hornets’ defensive rating ranks 26th, grouped with tanking teams as well as the Mavericks and the Hawks.

But in the last seven games — a subset chosen because Charlotte is 0-7 against the spread in it — Hornets opponents have cleared their team totals only four times. That’s at least improvement compared to expectations, though that's largely because expectations have fallen that far.

They've fallen that low in part because Charlotte has no viable post defense. It starts one player taller than 6-foot-7, and Nick Richards is not exactly known for his defense. The Hornets have length — Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, and LaMelo Ball could each make life difficult on the perimeter for opponents, even if they don’t — but they lack any quality interior presence.

Richards’ life tonight will be made miserable by this particular defensive matchup. If Charlotte does not devote double teams to Los Angeles Lakers star Anthony Davis, Richards will struggle to slow him on his own. That is hardly a criticism of Richards; AD is one of the most dynamic big men in the NBA.

And teams without quality post defenders thus struggle against him.

This mismatch has somewhat been anticipated by the sportsbooks, raising Davis’s points prop to 26.5 and his rebounds prop to 12.5, both above his averages of 23.9 and 11.9 since Jan. 1. While the Lakers play at an elevated pace, the Hornets are one of the NBA’s slower teams, so the sportsbooks’ adjustments were not that simple.

They were, rather clearly, because of how bad Charlotte is.

The instinct may be to take the rebounding prop because it is that much closer to Davis’s average, but it is also less rewarding (-122 at FanDuel compared to Over 26.5 points paying +100 at DraftKings). That 22-cent difference is an acceptable risk when acknowledging the 2.6 points above Davis’s recent average is effectively one bucket, maybe two, so it is rather comparable to the one extra rebound he would need to grab for that prop.

Davis should have his way tonight. The Hornets defense is all-around bad, but it is at its worst against big men who can score from all three levels, and Davis is among the three or four best in the NBA in that regard. Not coincidentally, one of those others dropped 62 points on Charlotte in January.

Davis probably won’t reach the levels Karl-Anthony Towns did, but he should close in on 30 points tonight.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 26.5 points (+100 +150 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

Lakers vs Hornets same-game parlay

Anthony Davis Over 26.5 points

D'Angelo Russel Over 2.5 made threes

Lakers 1H -6.5

50% boost available

+575 +863 at DraftKings

At some point, Charlotte will need to send extra defenders toward Davis. And when it does, someone on the perimeter will be abandoned.

Austin Reaves or LeBron James will be more likely to take those moments to drive toward the basket. Doing so will then further compromise the Hornets defense. And then D’Angelo Russell should do what he does best, shoot from deep.

Russell has hit at least three shots from beyond the arc in 11 of 15 games since Jan. 1, including 10 of his last 13. He has finally found a worthwhile role on this roster, one as a volume shooter taking the opportunities given to him, and Davis’ dominance should lead to more open looks for the veteran point guard.

All of this stems from doubting Charlotte's ability to defend. That’s what happens when you have the worst net rating in the NBA since Jan. 1 by nearly a full bucket. The Hornets have been outscored by 13.8 points per 100 possessions in that stretch. The gap between Charlotte and No. 28 in the league, the Wizards, is greater than the gap between the Wizards and the Grizzlies at 22.

We have not faded the Hornets aggressively enough, in part because hefty numbers like +12 scare off full-game plays with the worry of garbage-time covers. That is a fair worry, but it should not apply before halftime tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Hornets spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened Sunday afternoon with the Lakers favored by only 10 points. By Monday’s sunrise, it was up to -11.5 and midmorning pushed it to -12. If wanting to doubt the Hornets even at that number, take heed that they are 0-7 ATS since that upset of Minnesota when Towns scored 62, including losses by 16 and 20 last week as 11.5- and 15.5-point underdogs, respectively.

Charlotte is 7-11 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, with perhaps the most shocking part of that being that the Hornets have been double-digit underdogs in 18 of 48 games this year.

The total opened at 232 before plummeting overnight, reaching 228 by Monday morning and 227 by midday. If there is a trend in the market that discourages betting the Lakers to cover the full game, it may be that this suggests a lazy second half.

Covers community NBA picks

Lakers vs Hornets betting trend to know

The Hornets have not only gone 0-7 ATS in their last seven, but they have also fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by 8.2 points per game in that stretch. Even if removing a 34-point blowout loss when only five-point underdogs, they lost the other six games by an average of 4.4 points worse than spreads expected. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Hornets.

Lakers vs Hornets game info

Lakers vs Hornets latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic