Lakers vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Utah Takes Down Undermanned L.A.

Think back to the NBA preseason and consider your reaction if someone had said to you, “NBA odds have the Utah Jazz penciled in as 6-point favorites against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first week of November.”

You never would have believed them, or maybe you would have assumed both LeBron James and Anthony Davis had been sidelined by injuries. Nope, this is just the NBA, where Utah thinks a tank is only a vehicle and not the proper approach to the season.

Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Lakers vs the Jazz on November 7.

Lakers vs Jazz best odds

Lakers vs Jazz picks and predictions

At what point do we, as an NBA universe, start believing in this version of Utah? It may not be yet. Ten games may be just shy of an impressive-enough stretch, particularly when its point differential of +4.6 points per game better reflects the No. 4 team in the West thus far, not the No. 2 team. 

But similarly, at what point do we start outright dismissing these Lakers? A 2-7 start to the season will not lead to an eventual tank because the Pelicans can swap picks with Los Angeles (a leftover from the Anthony Davis trade), but it has led to broad over analysis in Hollywood. A -6.2 point differential per game suggests Los Angeles is exactly as bad as it seems, if not worse.

Preseason expectations aside, the current Jazz are that much better than the current Lakers.

If this turns into a close game the Jazz will win. The Lakers have reasons to yield quicker and to a greater extreme than most teams in the league. Los Angeles’ season is not yet a lost cause, but there is no version of events where this is the moment it turns around.

Furthermore, the Lakers likely presume, as we all do, Utah will eventually reverse course and head to the cellar. That may not end up being reality, but this 10-game quick start has not ruled out the likelihood. Los Angeles will not be worried about any tiebreaker for seeding purposes when it comes to the Jazz.

All of which is to say, if this game reaches halftime with a slight Utah lead, a bet on the Jazz to easily cover the second half would make sense. Live algorithms still struggle to bake in on those situational items that we punters rely on, such as the altitude, the age, and the care.

Maybe even an alternate spread at halftime or entering the fourth quarter should be considered since the Utah linchpin has been the veteran aspect of its roster — it’s not just that Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley, and Kelly Olynyk don’t want to tank, it’s also that no one dared ask them to — and that carries to some of its deeper reserves.

Rudy Gay, Malik Beasley, and rookie Walker Kessler are all truer NBA players than their Los Angeles counterparts of Austin Reaves, Juan Tuscano-Anderson, and Matt Ryan. When the benches empty, the Jazz edge will only amplify.

My best bet: Jazz -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

Lakers vs Jazz spread analysis

The Jazz are not only 8-3 in the NBA standings, but also against the spread. The Lakers are not only 2-7 in the standings, but also ATS.

The relative overperformance and disappointment have been in all facets, and the line movement has acknowledged those realities. After opening with Utah just a 3-point favorite on Sunday, this peaked at -7.0 in Monday’s early afternoon before dropping back down to -6.0.

One could argue that is an overreaction after Los Angeles was a 3.5-point home favorite against Utah on Friday, a number that would have suggested the Jazz be favored by one or 1.5 tonight, but the wider margin can be attributed to the Lakers’ coming off a loss last night — a 14-point defeat to Cleveland despite Los Angeles being just a 5.5-point underdog.

Bookmakers may be trying to catch up to the Lakers’ tailspin, but the last two games have shown they are far from it, failing to cover by 26 combined points — including that 130-116 loss to Utah

Lakers vs Jazz Over/Under analysis

For a moment, it looked like Los Angeles might have fixed its shooting worries. In two of a three-game stretch, just last week, the Lakers made 43.3% and 42.3% of their shots from deep, clearly improved compared to their 28.4 season-long 3-point shooting percentage.

But the game between them featured a 27.8% performance, and last night was a 29.6% showing. If Los Angeles is finding offensive efficiency, it is doing so with a stagger.

Trusting that deep shooting on a night with a total of 227.5 feels bold, particularly after the Lakers played last night. Furthermore, that Sunday loss may have been by 14 points, but LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook all played more than 30 minutes. With LeBron out, reaching that total will be difficult.

Lakers vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in its last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Jazz.

Lakers vs Jazz game info

Lakers vs Jazz key injuries

Pages related to this topic