NBA bettors get a Wild West shootout when the Los Angeles Lakers come to the desert to face the Phoenix Suns.
This is already the second meeting between these Western Conference combatants, with Phoenix blowing a 22-point lead to L.A. in a 123-116 loss last week, despite a big game from star forward Kevin Durant, who is the focal point of my Lakers vs. Suns predictions.
He not only dropped 30 points on Los Angeles but also helped facilitate the offense with six assists. My NBA picks for Monday, October 28 expect more of the same from KD.
Lakers vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Kevin Durant Over 3.5 assists (+120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Ball movement has been the name of the game in the desert. Through three showings, the Phoenix Suns sit among the top offenses in assist-to-FG ratio, dropping a dime on 74% of their buckets (second highest).
For Kevin Durant, that means being the beneficiary of those passes but also drawing the defense with his heavy gravity and finding teammates in that extra space he creates. He’s posted zero, six, and two assists in the first three outings, but he’s second on the team in passes made and averages six potential assists to start 2024-25.
Durant had six assists against the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday, with the Lake Show sending Rui Hachimura, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James after the Suns' star small forward while mixing in zone and man defense. Durant started hot, drew tighter defense, and then found open shooters on swing passes as well as dribble penetration.
That L.A. defense will try to take the ball out of Durant’s hands tonight, which makes KD a catalyst for the rest of the Suns. The Lakers are giving up a lot of baskets off assists, with foes averaging 28 helpers (tied for fourth most) along with an assist-to-FG rate of almost 70% — tied for fifth highest.
Monday’s NBA player props projections for Durant range from 3.7 assists to a ceiling of 5.4 dimes, with my number coming out to 4.4 assists for the future Hall of Famer. That looks like a great investment versus KD’s assist total, which sits at 3.5 O/U.
Given my forecast, the Over 3.5 should be priced around -165 instead of the +120 payout available at several sportsbooks on Monday morning.
Lakers vs Suns same-game parlay (SGP)
Kevin Durant 3+ assists
LeBron James 7+ rebounds
Suns moneyline
Durant draws a lot of attention and with L.A. trying to take the ball out of his hands, his player projections call for as many as five assists.
LeBron had only four rebounds versus Phoenix on Friday, but the teams shot extremely well. He’s coming off a 14-rebound outing and is forecast for at least seven boards tonight.
The Suns won’t blow another big lead and get some revenge for Friday’s loss in La-La Land.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lakers vs Suns odds
Lakers vs Suns live odds
Get the latest Lakers vs Suns NBA odds.
Lakers vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +2.5 (-110) | Phoenix -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +120 | Phoenix -140
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Lakers vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened as 2.5-point home favorites and early play has pushed this spread a full point to -3.5, as of Monday morning.
- Starting guard Bradley Beal is listed as a game-time decision, with that early line movement perhaps hinting at his status.
- The Over/Under opened at 226.5 points and has jumped to 227.5 O/U. The Lakers and Suns played Over the closing total of 228 on Friday, with both teams shooting better than 50% from the field.
- According to Covers Consensus, 58% of spread picks are laying the points with the Suns while 66% of picks on the total are taking the Over.
Lakers vs Suns trend
The Suns have stayed Under the closing total in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Suns.
Lakers vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 10-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Lakers vs Suns latest injuries
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