Lakers vs Timberwolves Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: LeBron Does Long-Range Damage

In the NBA, styles make fights, and as such, some of the most intriguing matchups are between teams that play entirely differently from one another. 

But it’s also compelling at times to watch teams that play nominally similarly, like tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, and to drill down on the key differences that make them unique. Particularly when those differences are centered around two of the NBA’s biggest stars: LeBron James and Anthony Edwards. 

The Wolves are one of the NBA’s top teams, and the Lakers are the former champs trying to beat the NBA odds and put together one last run. On Saturday, December 30 we’ll see which of these defense-first teams cracks.

My free NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Timberwolves believe that LeBron is going to lean on the long ball.

Lakers vs Timberwolves odds

Lakers vs Timberwolves predictions

Way back in the day now, when NBA scouts spoke about LeBron James as a prospect, there was only one negative thing they could say about him: He wasn’t good at taking threes. While his jumper wasn’t broken, so many of the other aspects of the game came so easily that it was rarely a focus.

But two decades on in his Hall-of-Fame career, he’s turning in one of the best shooting seasons of his life. James is shooting 41.3% from three on 5.5 attempts per game. That’s coming after multiple seasons of shooting in the low to mid-30s.

There are a few reasons for that jump, one of which is health. Last season, LeBron had a heel injury so bad that he seriously weighed having season-ending surgery, and he seems to have made a complete recovery.

But the biggest reason is that with D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, LeBron has two ball handlers who he (mostly) trusts to make plays who are also both pull up shooting threats. Those two are crafty on-ball threats, both dribbling and passing, and that takes a lot of the attention off LeBron relative to what he’s used to. Opposing defenses have to guard Russell and Reaves tightly, or they will just generate a good shot. 

That, in turn, makes it much easier to thread the needle on passes to James, who is also able to take way more spot-up attempts from three than in prior seasons.

Even with some of the spacing issues the Lakers have had at times James has rarely gotten shots this good. LeBron is getting assisted on 79% of their threes this season, which is a massive step up from the 30-50% range he was at earlier in his Lakers tenure.

And I expect James will want to use the threat of the three to open up the driving game against the Timberwolves. The Wolves have the best half-court defense in the NBA.

What James won’t do is simply bash his head into the twin towers of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns to limited success. LeBron is a cerebral player; he knows the best chance the Lakers have is to create scoring opportunities that involve touching the paint but denying any attempt at rim protection by Gobert. 

LeBron is averaging 2.2 threes in December and has made two or more in seven of those 10 games. With the strategic necessity for LeBron to prioritize the three in this one, I love these LeBron James odds at Over 1.5 threes made.

My best bet: LeBron James Over 1.5 threes (-150 at DraftKings)

Lakers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

LeBron James Over 1.5 threes

LeBron James Over 25.5 points

Anthony Davis Over 0.5 threes 

+390 at DraftKings

My same-game parlay for Saturday is playing on a theme. For the same reasons that I believe in my best bet, I’m also going with the Over on LeBron James at 25.5 points and Anthony Davis Over .5 threes made.

LeBron was absent in the matchup these two teams played one week ago, and it was clear how much they missed having his ability to attack. Towns may be limited or absent in this one per the injury report, so the Wolves may have to guard LeBron with someone who is either much slower than him in Kyle Anderson or someone who isn’t strong enough. I think James should be in position to attack mismatches all game.

Anthony Davis’ jumper has been quietly coming around after seemingly deserting him since the Bubble. While he’s still not taking a high volume, Davis is hitting his outside shots at a high clip. Davis is shooting 47.1% from three in December and has made at least one three in six of his last eight games. 

Just like I expect LeBron to use that shot to try and open up the paint against the Wolves, I expect AD will uncork at least a few attempts as well.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota opened as a -3.5 points favorite over the Lakers, and while that ranged as high as -5 overnight it’s settled back to that -3.5 mark at most sportsbooks.

The Lakers have been largely struggling since their In-Season Tournament win and are 2-5 straight up over the last two weeks. They’re underperforming the spread by 4.4 points per game in that time per Cleaning the Glass and are also just 7-10 against the spread on the road this season.

The Wolves are leading the Western Conference at 23-7 but they’ve shown signs of faltering lately as well. While ultimately the Wolves were able to do enough to win against the Dallas Mavericks in their last game their performance was far from inspiring.

It took far too much work for Minnesota to dispatch a Mavs team missing both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, who were also playing a road back-to-back. They played like the team down key pieces and fatigued, however, as they turned the ball over 22 times mostly out of carelessness.

The Lakers are a team that can win if the opposition gives them chances to avoid half-court offense. Perhaps the step up in competition will see the Wolves adjust their competitive level accordingly because otherwise, the Lakers could threaten an upset here.

Saturday’s total opened at 224.5, two points higher than when these teams played one week ago. That’s since risen as high as 226.5 at some sportsbooks.

Over their last seven games, the Wolf's defense has slipped a touch, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions, about five points worse than their league-leading full-season mark. Still, the Under is 8-5-1 when the Wolves are at home this season.

The Lakers are also playing below their prior standard, which has seen Darvin Ham make a change to their starting group. Russell is now coming off the bench behind Reaves, while former Timberwolf Jarred Vanderbilt has been starting. 

While I understand the reasoning behind that move, it’s just not sustainable from a spacing perspective. Minnesota is a team that can really make that move hurt by packing the paint and getting every rebound with their size advantage, while being made to feel little pain on the other end by Vando.

Lakers vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Under is 8-5-1 in the Wolves last 14 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Timberwolves.

Lakers vs Timberwolves game info

Lakers vs Timberwolves latest injuries

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