Luka Doncic Odds and Props: How Will Luka Fare in Closeout?

Luka Doncic is one win away from his first appearance in the NBA Finals, leading the Dallas Mavericks to a 3-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. He's done it all for Dallas in this series, averaging almost 33 points, eight rebounds, and nine assists — and letting any Minnesota player within earshot know all about it.

The Mavericks are 1.5-point home favorites in Game 4 tonight and need another big effort from their star guard to put away the pesky Timberwolves. I run down all the Luka Doncic odds and give my best NBA picks for Doncic props below.

Luka Doncic prop picks for May 28

• Luka Doncic Under 30.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
• Under 30.5 points / 6+ assists / Under 3.5 threes (+177 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Luka Doncic best bet

Luka Doncic pick: Under 30.5 points

What’s even more impressive about Luka Doncic’s contributions during the Western Conference finals is that the Dallas Mavericks shooting guard is battling through multiple ailments, including a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness.

Given the close spread, oddsmakers expect Game 4 to be a nailbiter. Doncic has logged an average of 41 minutes through the first three games and player projections have him pegged for 30.6 points over that same workload tonight.

That forecast sits right on his scoring prop for Game 4, with sportsbooks dealing Doncic’s scoring total at 30.5 Over/Under and pricing the Over as high as -123, but what if the game doesn’t go according to the oddsmakers’ expectations? 

Should the Minnesota Timberwolves start to pull away in the second half, Dallas could cut bait and rest its weary stud, knowing it still has a commanding series lead. And if the Mavs break Minnesota and build a cushion, we could see Luka getting a breather as they protect him for the finals.

Truthfully, the Doncic props are drum-tight at this point in the playoffs — no matter which market you try to take advantage of. His points, rebounding, and assist odds are all sitting very close to his projected output and the Overs will cost you added vig at this point in the process — a superstar tax on gameday.

A close game definitely breathes life into the Over 30.5 points but when adding up the possible ways Tuesday’s tilt could swing, I see more options for the Under from a dinged-up Doncic.

Prop: Luka Doncic Under 30.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Luka Doncic same-game parlay

Luka Doncic Under 30.5 points

Luka Doncic 6+ assists

Luka Doncic Under 3.5 threes

+177 at FanDuel

Doncic’s projections sit right on this scoring prop for Game 4. He’ll obviously be the target of the Timberwolves' defense and should they get up big, the Mavs could pull the plug and play for Game 5.

His forecasts all call for more than seven assists but he finished with just five dimes in Game 3 after dishing out 13 in Game 2. We’ll split the difference with this alt-prop.

Luka's been active from outside the past two games, knocking down a collective five triples on 22 attempts from beyond the arc. Game 4 models are all short of four makes from distance, with the Under juiced heavily.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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